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TOM STRYKERS COLLEGE SYSTEM of the WEEK
TOM STRYKER'S COLLEGE SYSTEM of the WEEK
Foreign Soil Failure - By Tom Stryker
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine that college football teams
are more comfortable playing at home than they are on the road. Practicing in
their own backyard, sleeping in their own beds and being able to relax with
their teammates and friends goes a long way. Of course, like some things in
life, too much good can lead to trouble.
When I started researching this week's card, I was looking to see how well
teams performed during a series of consecutive home games. After hours of countless
searches, I didn't really find much. I looked at how well home teams did in
back-to-back home games coming off a straight up loss, how they performed at
home off a pair of SU and ATS home wins and how successful they were as a host
coming off back-to-back straight up home losses. There were a few areas that
showed profit but nothing that really kept my interest.
Then, by accident, I stumbled across a technical situation that was rare but
extremely effective. Since 1980, this specific set of parameters only delivered
35 plays - an average of 1.2 selections per year. Even though there may be only
one play per season, the reward was significant. Take a look at this technical
gem.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college football road team provided they check
in off a string of three (or more) home favorite straight up wins and covers.
29 Year ATS Record = 24-11 ATS for 68.6 percent!
This Week's Play = OREGON STATE
Winning three games at home is a tremendous accomplishment for any college
football team. Winning and covering those three games all priced as a favorite
make the feat even more incredible. There is one team on Saturday's card that
had done exactly that. Stanford is on quite a roll right now and enters Saturday's
game at Oregon State off a nifty 3-0 SU and ATS home favorite run. The Cardinal
steamrolled San Jose State (-17' WON 42-17), smashed Washington (-9' WON 34-14)
and drilled UCLA (-5 WON 24-16) all in the comforts of Stanford Stadium. Needless
to say, this is going to be a tough encore for Jim Harbaugh's troops.
There are a couple of ways to tighten up this system that squeezes out even
more profit. If our guest checks in off an emotional conference battle, this
situation crashes to a stiff 4-16 ATS. Stanford faced UCLA in its last game
and the Cardinal applies.
That tightener is noteworthy but this next parameter really makes this investment
pop. With our 4-16 ATS in hand, this system dips to a stunning 0-12 ATS provided
our "play on" host battled on the road in their last contest. Oregon
State tackled Arizona State in the desert last week and that means the Beavers
apply to this perfect situation!
Stanford fits the bill as our Foreign Soil Failure this week and the Cardinal
is in trouble. Good luck with Oregon State on Saturday men!
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