Handicapper Profile

The home team has won and covered the last four games in this series and all in very easy fashion as all four victories have been by double-digits. While many expected this to be a very good series, it has been anything but with the lopsided games but I think that changes tonight as the Knicks stave off elimination once again. New York, trailing 3-1 in this series, won Game Five at home to keep its playoff hopes alive and now it will have to win on the road in order to extend this series to the limit. The Knicks offense has been stymied in the two games at Indiana but its 25-21 road record this season shows they can win on the highway. This included a 2-1 record at Boston with the lone loss coming in overtime. With the season once again on the line, I expect the Knicks to finally solve some of the issues that plagued them in the first two games in Indiana. George Hill's status is still unknown for Game Six, so it's very possible the Knicks could continue to exploit the lack of depth Indiana has at the point as D.J. Augustin clearly was not the answer after finishing with no assists and the team turning it over 19 times. How important is Hill? With him on the court, the Pacers have outscored opponents by 61 points in the playoffs. When he's on the bench, Indy's been outscored by 37. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 90 points or less three straight games while the Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. We finally get treated to a non-home blowout in this series. 10* (747) New York Knicks

It is no secret that the Dodgers have gotten off to a very slow start after coming into the season with some lofty expectations. There is still plenty of time to turn things around and despite a loss in the series opener last night, Los Angeles has won four of its last six games. This is the biggest underdog price the Dodgers have seen this season and we will take advantage of the value. Chris Capuano takes the hill for Los Angeles and he is coming off his best start of the season after getting hit hard in his initial start coming off the disabled list. He allowed just one run on five hits in 6.1 innings and he was very efficient in throwing just 79 pitches. Granted, that was against Miami and the Braves offense is clearly better but Capuano has been extremely solid against the Braves throughout his career with a 2.75 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 games including two quality starts a season ago. Atlanta stormed out of the gates with a 12-1 record to start the season but it is just 11-17 since then including losses in five of its last seven games. Additionally, the Braves have lost three of their last five home games and they are 3-8 in their last 11 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. It wasn't that long ago that Atlanta could not lose with Kris Medlen on the mound as it won 23 straight regular season games he started but now it cannot win. The Braves have lost his last five start and while poor run support is partly to blame, he is 0-4 with a 4.70 ERA in those games, allowing 36 hits, six home runs and 13 walks in 30.2 innings. This from a pitcher who allowed only six homers in 138 innings last season. We play on road underdogs with stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season, after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one homerun. This situation is 30-15 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Astros are tied with the Marlins for the worst record in baseball at 11-31 so blindly betting this team would have taken a hit on the wallet. Picking Houston in spots is the way to go however and tonight is one of those where we are getting some solid value. The Astros cashed as a +314 underdog against Detroit on Wednesday, which snapped a six-game losing streak, prior to losing the series opener last night in devastating fashion. Houston blew a 4-1 lead heading into the sixth inning and lost in the ninth inning on a botched play but I expect a recovery tonight. Erik Bedard is back on the hill following his best start of the season as he allowed two runs on four hits in five innings against the Rangers. It resulted in a team loss but it showed steps have been taken following a demotion to the bullpen. It has not been a good season for Bedard but that start against the Rangers should provide some confidence and he will be amped up tonight to face the Pirates, the team that released him after 24 starts with them a season ago. The Pirates have now won four straight games and seven of their last eight to remain two and a half games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central. Houston is certainly no prize but the Pirates are two-to-one favorites for the first time in forever. Do they deserve to be that big of a favorite here behind A.J. Burnett? I do not think so at all despite his solid pitching. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through nine starts which is certainly solid but Pittsburgh is just 4-5 in those games as he has gotten horrible run support in the majority of his games. His last home start against Houston last season resulted in him allowing six runs in five innings but the offense bailed him out. Don't expect that to be the case here. 9* (979) Houston Astros

The Mets won the opener of this series last nigh behind another strong performance from Matt Harvey. New York has now won two straight games following a six-game losing skid and I can see this little run continuing and we can be on the right side of that getting some incredible value. The Mets and Cubs have pretty much identical records but that is not shown in the moneyline. Jeremy Hefner gets the call this afternoon and we are backing him in what we can call a contrarian situation. His overall numbers are not great but he has only one bad start to his credit which has inflated those numbers somewhat. He has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts and has thrown a quality outing in three of his last four games but despite this, the Mets are 0-7 in his seven starts. The tough luck ends today. Chicago had won four of its last five games prior to Friday but this team is far from anything that should be a hefty favorite. The Cubs are just 9-13 at home and they are 0-5 in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. One very pleasant surprise in the starting rotation has been Scott Feldman. After a very solid 2011 season with the Rangers, he regressed last season with a 5.09 ERA and his time in Texas was done. This year he has a 2.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through seven starts and he has tossed four straight quality outings which all resulted in Chicago victories. This is where we are going contrarian again as we are playing against these streaks and this is the first time this season that Feldman has been listed as a favorite and that may not be a good thing as going back, his team record is 7-12 in the last 19 games in that role. 9* (951) New York Mets

Ottawa lost the first game of this series and while 4-1 score looks like a blowout, the Senators actually played a very solid game. They were hurt by penalties as they allowed two power play goals which was a surprise and can be blamed on possible first game jitters. Ottawa led the league during the regular season in penalty killing as it stopped 88 percent of power plays and some slight adjustments for Game Two should have it back into the groove. Winning ion Pittsburgh is a challenge but the Penguins showed some vulnerability against the Islanders as they lost one home game and went just 1-2 following a win in that series. Ottawa is coming into this game with the right attitude though as it feels it could have taken Game One with a few bounces its way and feels it can steal this game before heading home. Ottawa is 8-2 in its last 10 road games against teams that are scoring on 19 percent or higher of their power plays so it has been up to the challenge for the most part. Additionally, the Senators are 12-4 this season revenging a road loss and they fall into a great situation where we play against teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage of .700 or better that have won four of their last five games and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 43-25 (63.2 percent) since 1996. 9* (11) Ottawa Senators

Not many gave Seattle much of a chance in New York in its last series and after blowing a lead for Felix Hernandez in the opener, the Mariners responded with two wins to close the series. I expect the Mariners to carry that momentum into Cleveland and get back to the .500 mark for the first time since April 8th. Rookie phenom Brandon Maurer takes the hill in search of his first road win of the season and after a rough start to his big league career, he has settled in. After posting a 16.20 ERA through two starts, he has posted a 3.45 ERA over his last five starts and he will be facing Cleveland for the first time in his career, a significant edge. The Indians have been playing exceptional as they have gone 14-4 over their last 18 games and are now tied with Detroit for first place in the National League Central following the Tigers loss last night. The offense still remains a concern as they are hitting just .233 over their last 10 games and they will look to ride the arm of Ubaldo Jimenez. Like Maurer, he got off to a slow start but has settle in with three straight solid starts, two of which have been quality outings. Cleveland has won his last four starts which makes this a good time to go against him as I do not see this success continuing. The Indians are 0-5 in his last five starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Also, we play against American League favorites of -110 or higher that are hitting .265 or worse with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 5.70 and 6.20. This situation is 32-17 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (915) Seattle Mariners

Toronto got off to a miserable start this season with so many high expectations but it has started to put something together as it has won four straight games heading into this series with the Yankees. The Blue Jays were swept here in four games in their first visit last month and are just 1-6 in seven meetings this year. I expect them to rebound from that and keep their winning streak alive behind Mark Buehrle. It has been an inconsistent start to the season as he has posted five rough outings to go along with three quality starts but he is coming off his best outing of the season at Boston and I see it continuing. The Blue Jays have lost both of starts against the Yankees by identical 5-3 scores and while they have scored three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, the rejuvenated offense has the ability to keep it going. New York has dropped two straight games following a solid 7-1 run and the offense continues to struggle. The Yankees have scored more than four runs only twice in their last 14 games and have averaged just 3.4 rpg over that stretch. They have been successful because of a solid pitching staff and Hiroki Kuroda is near the top of the list. He has a 2.31 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts and he is riding a six-game quality start streak. That includes two quality performances against Toronto, both times in which he was matched up against Buehrle. I see the streak ending here against a Toronto offense that has caught fire, scoring 33 runs over its last three games. The same situation is in play here as we play against American League favorites of -110 or higher that are hitting .265 or worse with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 5.70 and 6.20. This situation is 32-17 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (917) Toronto Blue Jays

The Tigers got lit up last night in this series opener as Justin Verlander tied a career high by allowing eight runs in just 2.2 innings. Detroit has lost two straight and is just 3-6 over its last nine games following a great run where it went 9-1 over its previous 10 games. The Tigers have fallen into a first place tie with the Indians and I feel this is a great opportunity to get back into the win column. Rick Porcello has gotten off to a very rough start with a 6.68 ERA through six starts but looking deeper shows all of the damage was done in just one outing when he allowed nine runs on nine hits in just 0.2 innings against the Angels. Since then, he has gotten back on track as he has tossed three straight quality outings while posting a 3.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over that stretch. He has been hit or miss against the Rangers as he has allowed 18 runs in three bad outings but also has three quality performances to his credit as well. The Tigers are 20-8 in Porcello's last 28 starts on standard rest. Texas has been red hot as it is 10-3 over its last 13 games and has taken a commanding seven-game lead in the American League West. The Rangers have been doing it with a mixture of solid pitching and a potent offense but they are 0-7 in their last seven games when scoring three runs or fewer and I see that taking shape again here. They send Nicholas Tepesch to the mound and the rookie has been pretty solid for the most part. He has three quality starts in seven games including one against the Astros last time out but he has been unable to string together quality outings as he has followed up his first two with a loss in his next start. The Tigers are hitting .282 against right-handed pitching over their last 10 games. 10* (921) Detroit Tigers

You have to give the Warriors a lot of credit for what they have done in the playoffs so far. After losing the opening game in their series with Denver, they Warriors won four of the next five games to oust the third-seeded Nuggets. They then split two games in San Antonio and then evened up the series at two games apiece with a come-from-behind win in overtime in Game Four before losing Game Five. Now with their backs against the wall, the Warriors need to win tonight to extend the series but I do not see it happening. San Antonio's experience will prove to be too much and its coaching has made the correct adjustments over the last three games to shut down the potent Golden St. offense. The Spurs have a game to work with and Game Seven is at home should it go that far but they do not want to head home as anything can happen in a Game Seven. San Antonio has shut down Klay Thompson since he scored 34 points in Game Two and while the defense has been given credit for slowing down Stephen Curry, his ankle injury is clearly affecting him even though he is not using it as an excuse. History is clearly on the Spurs side as well as teams that have won Game Five of a best-of-seven series that was tied have gone on to win the series 88 out of 99 times and San Antonio alone is 11-1 in its last 12 series when leading 3-2. Granted not all of these have been won in Game Six but the confidence level is there. The Spurs have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a home win by 10 points or more, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 51-23 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (741) San Antonio Spurs

The Bruins defeated Toronto on Monday in improbable fashion as they rallied from a 4-1 third period deficit to win in overtime and advance into the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Obviously it was a huge victory and one that can provide us with a letdown opportunity to go against. Boston did get an extra day off which could help with the letdown factor but the Bruins are 3-8 in their last 11 games playing on two days rest and going back further they are 4-15 in their last 19 games after winning their previous game in overtime. The Rangers are also coming off a Game Seven win as they defeated the Capitals to advance. The home team had won the first six games in the series with the previous five decided by just one goal but New York stepped up and routed Washington 5-0 which was the second straight shutout from Henrik Lundqvist, a Vezina Trophy finalist. While Boston's goalie Tuukka Rask has been playing well also, the Bruins defense remains very banged up which is something the Rangers should be able to take advantage of. Defensemen Andrew Ference missed Game Six and Game Seven, Wade Redden sat out Game Seven and Dennis Seidenberg played just 37 seconds in Game Seven before being sidelined. The Rangers fall into a great situation as we play against home favorites of -150 or less in the second half of the season that are outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg, after a game where both teams scored four goals or more. This situation is 30-13 (69.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (5) New York Rangers

The Reds have taken the first two games of this series to make it five straight victories overall. Cincinnati improved to 8-10 on the road which is pretty solid seeing it started very poorly on the highway and while it seems to have a big edge here based on the moneyline, it is not the case. Mat Latos takes the hill and after a dominating start to the season with six straight quality starts, his last two outings have been of the non-quality kind. He is coming off of his worst start of the season, in which he gave up seven runs (six earned) and nine hits over six innings against Milwaukee and he has a 7.36 ERA over his last two starts but the Reds have been able to give him a ton of run support so they came away with wins in each of those games. Even though this is a different Miami team, he has not fared well at Marlins Ballpark as he has a 7.45 ERA in four career starts. The Marlins are now 11-29 on the season after suffering its fourth straight loss last night. We know this team is not good but picking them in spots can pay off and this is one of those. Jose Fernandez is starting to look like he is the real deal. After a couple rough outings toward the end of April, he has turned it around and is showing why his hype is so big. He won two games on the recent Marlins roadtrip, striking out 16 in 13 innings while giving up three runs which came by way of a three-run homerun. He is responsible for 36 percent of Miami's wins including two of five home victories. He will be out to avenge a loss in Cincinnati where he allowed five runs in four innings. The Marlins fall into a solid situation also as we play on home underdogs with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start while stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season. This situation is 117-79 (59.7 percent) over the last five seasons while netting a solid +56.6 units of profit. 10* (956) Miami Marlins

While Shelby Miller and Shaun Marcum were going in completely opposite directions, the Mets nearly got it done against the Cardinals yesterday and today we have an ever greater disparity of recent starts between the two which adds to the value. New York has dropped six straight and while many will think I am a glutton for punishment for backing them again, I go with the value and the contrarian matchup more often than not and it pays off. Jon Niese is coming off his worst two-start stretch of his career as he allowed 15 runs on 15 hits in 8.1 combined innings against the Braves and Pirates. Prior to that he posted a 3.31 ERA through six starts following a 3.30 ERA in 30 starts last season so we know what he is capable of and looking at just two recent starts is no way to go about it. That actually favors going the other way. He has made four career starts against the Cardinals and has posted a 1.83 ERA and St. Louis is 1-4 in its last five home games against left-handed starters. The victory last night made it three straight wins and going further back, the Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games and 12-2 in their last 14 games. This is a hot team with a lot of public backing right now which only adds to the other side. Like Miller from last night, Adam Wainwright is coming off one of his best starts ever as he allowed just two hits in a shutout victory over the Rockies. That is the start I like to fade next time out and Wainwright has had a nightmare of a time against the Mets with a 7.11 ERA over four starts. We also have a contrarian situation on our side as we play on National League teams that are hitting .250 or less and starting a pitcher with a 7.00 ERA or worse over five starting going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better. This situation is 25-15 (62.5 percent) since 1997. 9* (951) New York Mets