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The race for a BCS bid heats up this week as two top ten teams fall from grace. SEC powerhouses Auburn and Georgia both lost creating the biggest rankings shake up since the start of the season. Who’s in and who’s out? Let’s take a look at this weeks AP top five and see if we can determine who will be next to fall from BCS grace.
1. Ohio State
Are the Buckeyes overrated or are they the real deal? At the halfway point of the season they are 6-0, 2-0 Big Ten and ranked number one in the country. They have easily defeated unranked Northern Illinois, Cincinnati and Bowling Green. They defeated Number 2 Texas, No. 24 Penn State and No. 13 Iowa. I would consider Texas the only quality win to date simply because I’m not convinced Penn State and Iowa deserve the number 13 and 24 rankings. I only base that opinion on the caliber of opponent’s they have each faced this season. That said Ohio State has defeated three ranked opponents and remain undefeated. I’m not convinced they are the best team in the country but until they lose, which could happen November 18th against Michigan, they have to remain number one.
2. Florida
The Gators are number two and they deserve it. With huge wins over ranked conference rivals Tennessee and LSU they have proven they are for real. The only problem for Florida is that they are in the SEC. With number 11 Auburn and number 16 Georgia up next for the Gators a perfect season will be difficult. Both Auburn and Georgia are in desperate need of an impressive win after losing last week and knocking of Florida would restore some hope in both of their championship hopes. Even if they survive the Tigers and the Bulldogs they still have to wrap up the season with games against South Carolina and Florida State. The Gators are a good team deserving of the number two spot but I don’t think they will be able to hang on with their schedule.
3. USC
Reggie who? Matt who? The Trojans look like the team to beat once again in the PAC-10 thanks largely to a soft first half schedule. They should have no problem maintaining their number three ranking through the next three weeks with games against Arizona State, Oregon State and Stanford. November however will be another story. With consecutive games against number 18 Oregon, number 10 California, number nine Notre Dame and UCLA to wrap up the season we will see what the Trojans are made of. USC will not escape the month undefeated. Even if they survive Oregon and California November 25ths contest against Notre Dame will be their undoing. The Irish will roll through the remainder of their season with only one loss. A quality win to end the season against USC will be all that remains to get them back into the title hunt and the Irish will not be denied. The Trojans are a good team that deserves of the number three ranking now but like Florida with their remaining schedule an undefeated season is just too much to ask for.
4. Michigan
Talk about comeback team of the year. Off a disappointing 2005 season the Wolverines seem more determined than ever to prove they are still one of the elite programs in the nation. After whipping then number two Notre Dame 47-21 in South Bend the Wolverines have rolled through their early Big Ten schedule without breaking a sweat. They are the number four team in the country and deservedly so. However, they will fall soon. With back-to-back games against Penn State in Happy Valley and number 15 Iowa in the Big House their undefeated season will come to an end. Both Penn State and Iowa could use a quality win this season and knocking off number four Michigan would be a huge boost for either of these teams. That said I see a one loss Michigan saving their season by knocking off undefeated Ohio State in the final game of the year.
5. West Virginia
West Virginia has reached the number five spot in the country by beating up on a bunch of non-conference creampuffs. To start the season they have pounded Marshal, Eastern Washington, Maryland, East Carolina and Mississippi State. Now they move into their Big East schedule against two more creampuffs Syracuse and Connecticut. So for the next two weeks the Mountaineers will easily hold a spot in the top five. November will either make or break their season. With four of their last five games against Big East powerhouses number seven Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida and number 24 Rutgers I have a hard time seeing this team undefeated at the end of the season. In fact I don’t see them undefeated after they face number seven Louisville. I’m not impressed with a highly overrated Mountaineers squad. When it is all said and done this will be a two loss team and the third or fourth place team in the Big East. Enjoy the ranking now while you have it because it won’t last.
Will there be an undefeated team at the end of the season? I don’t think so. I believe there will be a handful of one loss teams deserving of a shot at the title this year. That said there are only two things you can be sure of. One, BCS versus playoff discussions will dominate every water cooler conversation in December. Two, the teams with the biggest late season wins will be meeting for the title. If nothing else it will be a lot of fun to watch as the remainder of this season unfolds. This will be college football at its finest it’s just too bad there isn’t a playoff system in place so we can determine the true champion in this season of champions.
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