#78 Indiana Hoosiers Preview

  #78 – Indiana Hoosiers 4-7 SU; 3-6-1 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  Last season, the Hoosiers recorded their most amount of wins since 2001 but they still have an uphill battle to even think about contending in the Big Ten. The offense showed signs of brilliance in the first half of the season before completely disappearing in the second half. The defense was consistent all season but the problem is that it was consistently bad. There is a lot of optimism coming from second year head coach Terry Hoeppner and while he may be saying the right things, the results still need to occur on the field. A soft non-conference schedule should get the Hoosiers out to another hot start similar to last season but they need to find a way to compete in conference action where they were 1-7 and got outscored by 18.5 ppg in 2005. It starts with the defense that doesn’t look to be much better than last year and that is a huge problem before the season even begins.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 6  Indiana averaged a solid 30.6 ppg in its first five games last season but followed that up with an average of 15.8 ppg in its final six games. The big name players are back including quarterback Blake Powers who set a single season school record with 22 touchdown passes. The problem is that he also threw 16 interceptions while completing just 56.4 percent of his passes. He has arguably the best group of receivers in the Big Ten, led by exciting sophomore James Hardy. The wideouts will be getting a lot of looks but getting them the ball might be a challenge as the offensive line is considered one of the weakest in the Big Ten. Also, the Hoosiers will be breaking in a new running back so the lack of a rushing attack will be detrimental to the offense. If the young line can jell quickly, Indiana has a chance to be the most improved offense in the conference. That if is huge however.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 6  The offense can put up huge numbers but it won’t matter much if the defense can’t stop anyone. The Hoosiers finished 93rd in total defense, 104th in scoring defense and 110th in rushing defense. The entire front seven will consist of new starters in 2006 but that might not be a bad thing considering the 215.2 ypg and 5.0 ypc allowed last season. In the physical Big Ten, those numbers will have to decrease dramatically. The secondary returns all four starters to the unit that finished a respectable 35th in the country in passing defense. Unfortunately, like most soft rush defenses, the secondary wasn’t tested very much and won’t again this year if the run stopping doesn’t stiffen up. The defense allowed at least 41 points in each of the final five games of last season and that is not going to get the job done. A huge turnaround is necessary but likely won’t happen.

 Schedule  Similar to last season, the schedule is easy early on but it all comes down to Big Ten play. The first four games are all non-conference contests with the fourth game at home against Connecticut being the toughest of the four. The lone road game in there is at Ball St., a weaker team but a team that is on the upswing. A 4-0 start is not out of the question nor is a 0-8 finish. The Big Ten schedule is similar to last year with both Penn St. and Northwestern off the slate for the second consecutive season. The good news is that four of the five toughest games are at home, the exception being a game at Ohio St. Possible wins at Illinois and Minnesota or Purdue could mean bowl eligibility for the first time since 1993 but the Hoosiers must win the games they are supposed to win.

 You can bet on…  Indiana has improved its win total in each of the last three seasons and doing it for a fourth straight year is a definite possibility. It’s up to the defense as the offense should be able to move the ball and keep games within reach. The Hoosiers have gone a money-burning 22-42-1 against the number since 2000 including a putrid 15-37 ATS record as a dog. In conference action, Indiana has posted 2-6 ATS records in four of the last six years and for that to improve, it has to be able to stop the opposition. That is not likely going to happen as the Hoosiers have allowed at least 31.2 ppg in each of the last four years. Going against a potent Western Michigan offense in the opener should tell us a lot.

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