Late Season Bubble Teams

The end of the college football regular season is closing in fast. Conference championships are at stake as well as winning seasons. In college football, a winning season also means the opportunity to play in a bowl game. The magic number for bowl eligibility is six.

Here’s a list of teams that are closing in on the all-important 6-win mark: Clemson (5-4), Iowa (5-4), Michigan State (5-4), Missouri (5-4), Kansas (5-4), Nebraska (5-4), Oklahoma (5-3), Texas A&M (5-4), Tulsa (5-4), Navy (5-3), BYU (5-4), Colorado State (5-4), New Mexico (5-4), Utah (5-4), Bowling Green (5-4), Central Michigan (5-4), Northern Illinois (5-4), Arizona State (5-4), Oregon State (5-4), Louisiana Tech (5-3) and Nevada (5-3). These teams are on the bowl bubble and have, or should have, a greater sense of urgency over the next three weeks.

It’s important to examine schedules, as well. For example, Michigan State has two games remaining, at Minnesota Saturday then at home to Penn State. Neither game is going to be easy, and the Spartans will be a dog in both (+5 at Minnesota Saturday). They have the type of offensive talent (37 ppg) that can give any team trouble, but will they be focused after dropping 4 of the last 5 games?

In Michigan State's four losses, the offense has scored 59 points in the first half and 17 in the second half. Part of the problem could be conservative play-calling in the second half, coach John L. Smith admitted this week. He said the coaching staff must "change our mind-set a little bit." Don’t be surprised if they play more of an aggressive, wide-open second half this weekend.

Look at Missouri’s schedule. The Tigers have just lost two in a row on the road to Kansas and Colorado. With two games left and a 5-4 record, they host Baylor Saturday then travel to Kansas State for the finale. Which of those two games look more winnable? It was interesting this week that Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said the players probably don’t respond to pressure very well, after which the players disagreed. We’ll find out who’s right when Missouri hosts Baylor Saturday as an 8-point favorite.

Arizona State will be an interesting bubble team to watch. They suffered a tough break losing QB Sam Keller a few weeks ago, but freshman QB Rudy Carpenter has been sensational. He’s thrown 10 TDs with 2 interceptions while completing 74% of his passes! He might be one of those unusual circumstances where the freshman replacement is better than the veteran. Added coach Dikr Koetter, “Over all Rudy has played outstanding. He is good at throwing the ball away when the play is not there. Overall I'm very pleased with Rudy." Arizona State has key games with UCLA and rival Arizona – one win and they clinch a winning record.

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