Pro Parity and 20-Point Blowouts

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Jim Feist - 11/15/2010 11:35 AM

by Jim Feist

For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, "On any given Sunday any team can beat another." The last few years it seemed as though parity had disappeared from the NFL, with the Patriots going 16-0 in 2007 and last year the Saints and Colts starting a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS. Even then, four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less. They didn't lose a game in the first half of the season, but were far from dominant.

What New England did in 2007 was unique, but let's not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8 ATS.

This season (unless you're a Panthers' fan), parity has really roared back. The Chiefs, Raiders and Lions have been much improved, and even the Bills have been strong offensively since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. It's common to see smaller differences between the good teams, the average ones and the bad.

For instance, before the season started the top teams in consideration to make the Super Bowl were the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Vikings and Cowboys. The Patriots just lost to the Cleveland Browns, 34-14, the Chargers and Vikings have found a slew of ways to lose games, while the Cowboys have fired their coach in a train wreck season. Remember that Dallas and the Saints were the top two teams expected to win the NFC! The sizzling NY Giants were not on that list, sitting at 20-to-1 in August. At the halfway point, every team had at least two losses.

Two years ago, four of the top AFC teams expected to make the Super Bowl were the Pats, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers. Halfway through, all four had serious weaknesses. The Patriots lost their only irreplaceable player (Tom Brady), the Colts battled injuries, while the Jags and Chargers couldn't stop anybody. In the NFC, the 2008 Cowboys were the favorite, but stumbled through a terrible stretch going 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS and failed to make the playoffs.

Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. Last season, defending AFC East champion Miami lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. This season, QBs Brett Favre and Tony Romo have been hit with injuries, while everyone but Peyton Manning, it seems, has been injured for the Colts.

There's an old wagering adage about going against pro football teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That's not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.

It's already happened this season. The Jaguars got routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the Colts, 31-28. A year ago after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. Even the 2009 Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.

We saw this trend often in 2007, too. The Cowboys destroyed the Bears (34-10) and Rams (35-7), then Dallas was a 10-point road favorite the next week at Buffalo. They not only failed to cover, they barely won the game, 25-24, needing a miraculous comeback in the final 30 seconds.

Revenue sharing, the draft and the salary cap have all helped to level the playing field more or less and keep competitive balance. Even the worst NFL team would trounce the best college football team if the two were able to face off at the end of each season. This happened in the 1920s when Knute Rockne's great Notre Dame teams played some charity games with the NFL (the pro teams won handily). This is because every pro roster is stocked with talented college players, while roughly two or three athletes from a college team are good enough to ever play in the pros.

The draft is a major contributor to parity, with the worst teams having the first shot at the best players. Another example in 2007 was the Giants. NY blew out the Falcons (31-10) and 49ers (33-15) in consecutive weeks, then the next week they were a 10-point favorite against Miami in London. In a sloppy game, the Giants squeezed out a 13-10 win. In addition, with a relatively small talent gap in pro football, teams can often bounce back from one or two terrible performances with a surprisingly strong game. After a 38-14 loss at Atlanta in Week 3, the 2007 Chiefs were a home dog to Denver, but won their first game, 33-19.

It might not seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.

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