TWO WINNING ANGLES

TWO WINNING ANGLES
from Tom Scott

As you know, I am more of a technical handicapper than anything else and I spend a great deal of my time during the week looking for situations that have, not only come up in the past, but have led to successful wagers. My extensive database stretches back to 1980 and allows me to find scenarios that have occurred regularly for the past quarter century. My history of winning consistently on this site can be traced directly to those efforts.
While going through this week's schedule, I came up with these two situations that have performed with that same kind of consistency. I thought I would share them with you to make you aware of some of the things that I do to legitimize myself as a professional handicapper.

Use the games that these angles have found for this week but, more importantly, save the angles for future use. And, even more importantly, see the kind of rationale that finds these gems and try to find some yourself.
Not only will you come up with a few winners, you will become a better handicapper just by understanding the way these things work.

This is the first of the two:
I noticed that although there have been more than 17,500 college football games played since 1980, only 280 of them involved a home underdog who won and covered as road chalk the week before. I thought it would be fun to see how these teams did in that home dog role. It was. Of those 280 teams in the role specified above, 163 of them covered the spread, about 58%. If the opponent came in off back-to-back SU wins, the angle improved to 94-66.
Here's where it got good. We eliminated all teams who were not able to win at least 14 of their last 22 games and came up with this 42-19 system:

PLAY ON any home dog who won and covered as a road favorite last week if his opponent is off BB SU wins.
26 year ATS = 42-19 for 68.8%

Of course, there's a play this week. That play is TEXAS TECH over Texas
Note: Of those 61 teams, the ones that scored 42 or more in their last game were 15-2 in this angle. Texas Tech beat Iowa State 42-26 last week.

This is the second:
I looked strictly at teams playing their eighth game of the season in this study. I wanted to see if, after posting a 4-3 record in its first seven games, a team would see the next game as the critical point in its season.
Lose it ,and it's back to .500 and an uphill climb to bowl eligibility. Win it, and momentum is built to get that sixth win, a bowl bid, and maybe more.
I found that having a little momentum before hitting game eight helps along with the extra motivation of a rivalry and revenge. Here is how this study played out.

First off, all 4-3 teams in game eight of the season were 226-193 ATS since 1980 with no other qualifications added. That's a good start. Then I added the rivalry idea by making game eight a conference game. That improved the angle to 203-162 putting it at 55.6% and well over the break even point. To insure that our team had some momentum building before this game, I took only teams that had covered the spread in each of their last two games. Now, I had a 56-28 angle and, as Meatloaf so wisely stated, "Two out of three ain't bad."

STOP RIGHT THERE! Before I fine tune this angle any further, understand that you must play every game that fits into the 56-28 part. After you see how the angle finishes, do the math. You will see that you make more money by playing every game the idea provides than you will by limiting your plays to the final set of parameters. On with the study.

To enhance the preexisting momentum idea, I brought our team in off a double-digit SU win and improved the system to 36-14, a sweet 72%. Toss in one more motivational advantage (revenge) and you have this 77% system:

In game number eight and in conference play only, PLAY ON any 4-3 college team who is off back-to-back ATS wins and a double-digit SU win if he is playing with revenge.
26 year ATS = 20-6 for 76.9%

There is one play this week that fits all above parameters. It's MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE over Louisiana Lafayette
Note: Of those 26 teams, the ones who playing with double revenge or worse were 14-2 in this angle. LA Lafayette has beaten the Blue Raiders three straight times.

Tom Scott has his MAC Game of the Year going this weekend on the guaranteed picks page. Scott, a recognized MAC Conference expert, says that this game has everything required to meet the Game of the Year designation. His team has the best players, the most motivation, and a powerful set of angles and team trends supporting the play. Check the guaranteed picks page on this site on Friday evening for this outstanding play. It's only $33 and you don't pay until after it wins.

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