A Volatile Mix: Bad Coaches and Bad Defense

A lot of people are looking for teams that they want to BET ON. They look for reasons why one team will cover the number over the opponent, be it a better quarterback, home field edge, better defense, a faster secondary. Well here's another way of sports betting thinking: Look for teams that are good to BET AGAINST. The money is just as good at the betting window when teams cover and when a go-against doesn't cover.

The Arizona Cardinals have been a great example the last few years. Instead of getting involved with match-ups and situations, the Cardinals have been a great team to fade when they are on the road. Last season the Cardinals were 2-5 SU/ATS on the road. This season: somewhat competitive at home, but 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS on the road. The point is there is less study and reasoning into the point spread each week: If they are on the road, look to go against them.

The truth is, their are reasons for teams that play like this. They have had a one-dimensional offense the last few years, making it easier for defenses to stop, a lousy defense and a poor coaching staff. I don't think much of Dennis Green, but even if you think he's competent as a coach, you can't argue that their coordinators have been very good. They are currently third worst in the NFL in total defense and last month their offensive coordinator resigned/was fired, so things were not that smooth on the sidelines. This mixture, poor coaching and bad defense, is an excellent formula to wager against.

Competent coaching is a key element when it comes to winning football, as so many players need to be taught and organized. Some coaches simply don’t have the talent. This often translates into bad defense and unmotivated personnel, which means lots of losses on the field, but lots of wins at the sports books (if you’re smart enough to bet against them). Even before Green arrived, a few years ago Arizona was 3-13 SU last season, 4-12 against the spread for the entire season. That followed a season where Arizona was 6-10 SU/ATS. You see the pattern. Their biggest weaknesses were bad coaching and defense. Before Marvin Lewis arrived in Cincinnati, turning things around, the Bengals were ripe with bad coaching and bad defense. One year Cincinnati was 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, which followed a 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS season. So both teams were not one-year disappointments.

Perhaps the poster child for bad defense, bad coaching and even bad management is the Detroit Lions under clueless GM Matt Millen. The Lions entered Sunday’s game against New England with a 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS record and are 23-68 since Millen took over. If you think those numbers are ridiculous, try this one: they are 5-40 on the road! Detroit is 0-5 SU/ATS on the road this season. So sit down and make a list of good/bad coaches, and teams that may be one-dimensional (for example, no offense, good defense). This will help you identify soft lines – and soft lines can translate into hard cash.

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