Super Bowl Fever!

Super Bowl 41, Bears versus the Colts. So how do you think Edgerrin James feels? James was a star for all these years with the Colts, then fell into a black hole after taking big bucks to play in Arizona a year ago. This is a matchup of a veteran team that finally made it to the big game after years of setbacks (Colts), against the young up-and-coming club (Bears).

The matchup the betting public sees first is QB Peyton Manning against Rex Grossman, which is mainly why the Colts are a TD favorite. That, and the fact that the AFC dominated the NFC again this season and has dominated the Super Bowl, winning 7 of the last 9.

QB play certainly favors the Colts by a wide margin. Grossman threw 20 interceptions, his first real season that he was able to stay healthy. Two-time MVP Manning is simply the best quarterback of this generation and one of the best of all time. You can make an argument that he is the best. Two years ago the guy set a record with 49 TDs and only 10 picks! This season: 31 TDs, 9 INTs.

However, there are other matchups that need to be addressed and many favor the Bears. Defensively the Bears have an edge, ranked No. 5 in the NFL while the Colts are 21st, and dead last against the run. The Colts run defense has been completely different in the postseason, however, with the return of quick, hard-hitting safety Bob Sanders. The Colts were able to mask that weakness many times during the regular season by jumping out to big leads so opponents would have to pass more, right into the Colts second-ranked pass defense. Naturally, that will be their game plan in the Super Bowl, which will force Grossman to pass more. And erratic Rex is not the guy you want to ask to throw 45 times a game.

On the other hand, Grossman has outstanding wide receivers with speedy Bernard Berrian and sure handed veteran Mushin Muhammed, who creates mismatches with his size. In addition, the Chicago offense is balanced behind RBs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. On paper at least, they could give the Colts problems by controlling the ball and the clock, which is their style. Grossman was known as a mad-bomber at Florida under Steve Spurrier looking deep often, a style he still utilizes, so it will be interesting to see how this Chicago offense (ranked 15th) fairs. For the record, the Bears are 13-4-1 OVER the total averaging 26.7 points, which ranks third in the NFL. The Colts rank second in scoring at slightly over 26.7 points.

Another matchup that favors the Bears is special teams. The Colts rank dead last in kick coverage and struggled again against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, giving up kickoff returns of 80 and 41 yards. And the Bears have a devastating kick returner in Devin Harris. Remember 10 years ago when Green Bay kick returner Desmond Howard was Super Bowl MVP?

The last six NFL champs – the Steelers, Buccaneers, Ravens and Patriots (three times) – all had more yards rushing in their Super Bowl victories. Even a weak running team like Tampa Bay (150 rushing yards) ran it up on the Raiders, who ran for just 19 yards (1.9 yards per carry), as well as the weak 2001 Patriots running game that out-ran Marshall Faulk and the Rams 133-90.

However, the two Super Bowl champions before those were actually out-rushed on Super Sunday. In the Rams’ 23-16 win over Tennessee, the Rams had 29 total yards rushing (2.2 yards per carry) against the Titans tough defensive front. Tennessee had 159 yards on the ground, as Eddie George topped Marshall Faulk 95-17 in yards! Yes, people forget that Faulk (10 carries, 17 yards) was shut down in that Super Bowl on the ground. The year before, the Broncos cruised over the Falcons, 34-19, but Atlanta had a rushing yardage edge of 131-121. The Falcons averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, while Denver managed 3.4 yards per rush attempt. But Denver got the money (as a 7½ point favorite) and the ring.

Still another factor to consider is the turf. The Colts are built offensively around their artificial turf at home because of their speed. However, this game is on natural grass (Pro Player Stadium where the Miami Dolphins play), and Indy was a poor 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS on the road this season. In fact, the Colts are 1-4 Su/ATS their last five road games (all on grass). Chicago is 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS away from home. Underdogs winning the Super Bowl are nothing new – the Patriots and Bucs won as dogs in 2001 and 2002. A good handicapper needs to examine all areas of the upcoming game, and not just focus on one area that appears important, but might not be the difference.

Finally, the emotional factor of winning a big conference title game needs to be examined. The Bears were the No. 1 seed in the NFL and expected to get here. The Colts, on the other hand, were the No. 3 AFC seed and come off a thrilling, emotional comeback win against their arch rivals, finally burying the notion that Tony Dungy and Manning can’t win a big game. Think back two years ago when the Eagles beat Atlanta at home in the NFC Championship game. Players were hugging each other and crying after the win, as they had lost in the NFC title game the previous three years. They then lost the Super Bowl to New England.

In 2003 the Panthers had an emotional playoff run, upsetting the Rams in OT and then winning at Philly as a dog, only to lose the Super Bowl. Granted, they lost 32-29 to the Patriots, but were outgained by a wide margin in the game. The Colts are the favorite, but they haven’t hoisted that Vince Lombardi trophy just yet. They are the sentimental favorite to win, but that doesn’t mean they will: You have to earn it on Super Sunday!

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