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One of my all-time favorite quotes in the history of sports talk radio comes from The Jim Rome Show. “There are two perfectly good reasons for there to be 32 bowl games – gambling and gambling.”
While Rome and the majority of the public dismiss any College postseason contest played before the New Year, those Bowl games are often the easiest to handicap. Here are three general rules you should jot down. My team and I use them all.
Play against Unmotivated Favorites
Every year, there are two or three teams that get “screwed” out of marquee bowl matchups and get stuck in some game they have little interest in playing. In recent years, the Holiday Bowl has provided an excellent example of this. For whatever reason, outside of the BCS, the Pac-10 isn’t affiliated with any major Bowl Games. Thus, if the 2nd place team doesn’t place in the BCS, they get shipped off the Holiday Bowl. While you or I would love a trip to San Diego, these Pac 10 reps, more often than not, play like they’ve been shipped off to Beirut.
For example:
In 2004, #4 Cal (-11) lost outright to #23 Texas Tech, 45-31.
In 2005, #6 Oregon (-3) lost outright to Oklahoma, 17-14.
This year, we have the same situation as an Arizona State team that just had its BCS aspirations crushed must “settle” for a date with Texas. While it was certainly a disappointing season down in Austin, there’s no reason to believe that the Longhorns can’t pull the outright “upset.”
Other unmotivated favorites to look at: Cincinnati (-11) over Southern Miss (Papa John’s), Boston College (-3.5) over Michigan State (Champs Sports), Cal (-4.5) over Air Force (Armed Forces).
Play on Motivated Underdogs
What do I mean by a “motivated underdog?” How about isolating programs making a return to the college postseason after a long layoff (first-time Bowlers often struggle). There was no more shining example of this than the 2006 Music City Bowl, where Kentucky (+11) pulled off an outright upset of Clemson. The Wildcats hadn’t won a bowl game since 1984 and they enjoyed the added bonus of playing in somewhat nearby Nashville, TN. It all added up to a very easy play on the boys from the Bluegrass State.
This year, Indiana looks to be in a similar boat. The Hoosiers haven’t gone bowling since 1993 and haven’t won a postseason contest since the 1991 Copper Bowl. They are currently a four-point dog against Oklahoma State in the Insight Bowl.
Play Over if the total is 63 or higher
This system has gone 32-8 Over during the past decade. I’ll leave it up to you to find the qualifying games. It only applies to the December bowls.
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