#92 SMU Mustangs Preview

  #92 – SMU Mustangs 5-6 SU; 7-4 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  SMU has a chance to do something that it has not done since 1984 and that is to go to a bowl game. ‘Mustangs’ and ‘bowl’ are two words that normally clash but this could be the year that they finally make a postseason run. They have gone from zero wins to three wins to five wins over the last three years and quietly are becoming a player in C-USA. SMU went 5-6 last season with four of those losses coming by a touchdown or less. The Mustangs started 1-4 and a bounty was put out for head coach Phil Bennett but instead of packing it in, they went 4-2 down the stretch and carry some much needed momentum into 2006. The defense was the backbone last season as it finished 57th in the country in scoring defense despite allowing 66 points to Texas A&M in its third game. The offense will be breaking in a new quarterback this season but there are enough players coming back that the transition will not be as bad as normal. The Mustangs are in the more difficult C-USA West division so while an outright conference title isn’t likely, an at-large bowl bid is.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 8  Quarterback has always been a weakness at SMU and this season won’t be any different. Redshirt freshman Justin Willis will be the starter and even though he has never thrown a collegiate pass, the Mustangs are high on him. He can find success in this offense since he has the ability to get the job done with his legs. He has some great receivers to get the ball to and tailback DeMyron Martin will take a lot of pressure off him. Martin rushed for 854 yards as a freshman and a more impressive 4.6 ypc. The offensive line is solid but it’s not very big and depth will be a huge concern if the injury bug hits. The Mustangs have increased their ppg average over the last three seasons and while their 20.8 ppg average from last season is not impressive, their 32 ppg over their last three games is. If Willis can be productive right away and avoid mistakes, the offense can be very good.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 6  The defense kept the Mustangs alive last season and will be counted on to do so again. The good news is that the unit will be solid and can be even better. The front seven will carry the load with the defensive line having the potential to be one of the best in the conference. All four starters return and depth is an asset as six of the eight players on the two-deep chart are seniors. There is a lot of speed at linebacker which will once again help the rushing defense that finished 48th in the country last season. The Mustangs allowed only 3.7 ypc, the lowest average since 2001. The problem is the secondary where only one starter returns but he is a good one. Safety Joe Sturdivant led the team in tackles and interceptions last year and he will need to feed his energy to the inexperienced group.

 Schedule  The schedule sets up nicely for a strong start, giving the Mustangs a lot of confidence heading into conference action. SMU is at Texas Tech in its opener but after that, four winnable games dot the schedule including its conference opener at Tulane. The C-USA schedule is relatively tame with top teams in the West, Houston and Tulsa, having to come to Dallas. Central Florida and Southern Mississippi, the two best teams in the East are not on the schedule for the second straight year. SMU has home games in three of its last four with the season finale being at Rice, a game that could decide whether or not the Mustangs go bowling.

 You can bet on…  The Mustangs have had only one winning season in the last 20 years and expectations are high meaning Bennett must come through or he will be gone. With SMU finishing last season 3-0 and the potential to be 4-1 after five games this year, it could be one of the biggest runs since the 80’s. The Mustangs went 6-1 in its last seven games against the number last year and went 4-1 ATS as a road dog showing how they had the ability to keep games close. The Mustangs will be getting around four touchdowns in their first game at Texas Tech and the defense can to slow down that potent Red Raider attack with an outright upset not out of the question. However, the last time SMU received that many points was at A&M last year and that resulted in a 58-point loss.

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