AFC Wild Card Weekend!

It was another wild final weekend in the NFL playoffs. The NFC was pretty much set after the Giants won Saturday, but the AFC came down to the final game – and then some! The late afternoon game, the 49ers at Broncos, would decide the final seeds and the game went into overtime as football fans from coast to coast held their breaths. The Broncos stunning home loss in OT changed everything, with Denver slipping out and the Chiefs slipping in. That also sent the Jets to New England for the first game instead of Indy. Here’s a peak at what to look for.

Chiefs at Colts: This one will be all about simple strategy. The Chiefs love to play conservative on offense under first-year coach Herm Edwards, running the ball behind RB Larry Johnson and his 1,651 yards. And that’s the best way to attack the Colts, who have the smallest defensive front in the NFL and the worst against the run. The Chiefs will run a lot in the first half and hope to keep it close and keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s mitts.

However, that same strategy was tried in two of the last three games by the Bengals and Dolphins, and it failed. Yes, those teams got huge chunks of rushing yardage early, but they got too conservative in the red zone and settled for field goals. Miami had 5 red zone opportunities Sunday and had no touchdowns! The Colts will gladly play a bend but don’t break defense, allowing field goals, because Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne don’t do field goals. They do huge chunks of yardage through the air and lots of points.

If the Chiefs settle for field goals, the Colts will make them pay, because once Indy gets ahead (like the did against Miami and Cincy), the opponent has to abandon more of the run, and the Colts have plenty of speed in the secondary. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs come into the playoffs on a poor 2-3 SU/ATS run.

Another concern is 36-year old QB Trent Green, who has had a poor second half of the season. He’s battled injuries, and against Oakland he was just 12 of 24 passes, and in Sunday's 35-30 win over Jacksonville Green was 14-of-21 with two picks, and only one TD. KC is 3-5 SU/ATS on the road and 6-2 UNDER the total the last 8 games with that run-first approach.

The Colts are 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS at home and completed their first perfect season at home since 1958 when the Baltimore Colts won the NFL championship. An omen?

Jets at Patriots: An interesting battle between two AFC East teams who don’t like each other. In fact, the coaches appear to hate each other! Jets coach Eric Mangini was the Patriots defensive coordinator last season and Pats coach Bill Belichick wasn't happy that he left, feeling he jilted the team that had done so much for him. Get over it, Bill. Coaching opportunities don’t come along often (just ask Butch Davis). You have to jump when it’s there.

Regardless, the Jets upset the Pats here, 17-14, when they met last month. It was interesting that that was the last game played at Gillette Stadium with the awful sand/turf that had been installed in the summer. The organization ripped it up for new field turf and the Pats haven’t lost at home since (3-0). The Patriots are healthier than they've been in months the last three games, all wins. In fact, they haven’t lost (3-0 SU/ATS) since the offensive line shaved its beards and refused to talk to the media in a show of focus and solidarity. There’s no way Belichick (11-2 in postseason) wants to lose to Mangini in this situation.

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