THE NBA PLAYOFFS - THE TOTAL PICTURE

THE NBA PLAYOFFS - THE TOTAL PICTURE
by Tom Scott

For the purposes of this article the following terms are translated thusly: SU = Straight Up • ATS = Against the spread • PLON = Play ON • PLAG = Play AGAINST • WL% = Team's Won-Loss percentage OU Line = The posted Total • FWL% = Foe's Won-Loss percentage All quoted records are from 1990 thru 2006. Ties (pushes) are not included.

As a bettor myself, I look forward to the NBA Playoffs, mostly because I win. Annually, I make a significant profit during this event which allows me to enjoy the summer without having to worry about paying for pool chemicals. The reason for my success (31-15 ATS over the past three years on this site) in these events is that I do not allow myself to get caught up in the drama, maintaining a calm unbiased attitude toward the games that are played. In this article, I will pass along some of my handicapping techniques to help you navigate through this period without having to take a second mortgage on the house.

WHEN DECIDING TO PLAY THE TOTALS, most every plunger looks for the Over first. It's a natural tendency formed mostly by the idea that, if you take the OVER, you can't lose until the game is complete. You can lose the Under anytime during the second half. For that reason alone, the linemaker adjusts nightly in favor of the Over and because he is doing so without sound reasoning, we can take him out behind the woodshed and thrash him from pillar to post.

Let's start this treatise with one simple rule - "NEVER PLAY THE OVER IN AN NBA PLAYOFF GAME". Flat statements don't get any flatter than that but this one isn't just a whimsical warning, it's backed by the facts. Except for the games in which the OU Line is 220 or higher, the UNDER won more times than the OVER in all six of the line categories (ranges of ten starting with 160-169.5). What follows is a set of eight different situations where the UNDER prevails profitably.

WHEN THE GAME HAS: A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.

A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.

A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.

A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.

A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.

WHEN THE TOURNAMENT ROUND OR GAME NUMBER IS: Game two of any series in which the OVER connected in game one and the Game Two OU Line is less than 184, the UNDER has won 34 times in 52 tries.

The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries.

Game three of any series where the home team scored more than 97 in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 193, the UNDER has won 37 times in 55 tries.

If you add up all eight of those records, you will find 436 UNDERS against just 272 OVERS, A profitable 61.6% winners for the players who resist the temptation to play with their hearts. I hope this information helps you to beat "The Man" in this year's NBA Playoffs. Keep in mind that, if you don't have the time to ferret out these plays, my picks are always available on the guaranteed picks page of this site. There, I will put the best plays from my best angles throughout the event and, like I do every year, I will make money.

Good luck,
Tom Scott

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