Defense Often Has the Early Edge!

Defense Often Has the Early Edge
by Big Al McMordie

While watching the first college football game of the season -- USC/Virginia Tech -- I recognized something that sports bettors are all too familiar with: In early season games, the defenses have an edge on the offenses.

USC, a double-digit favorite, trailed the Hokies 10-7 at the half. That number was well below the 24½ total for the first half. While many key components were returning for USC’s devastating offense from a year ago, the Trojans were not quite in mid-season form in that first half. This isn’t surprising, either. Although QB Matt Leinart is off a terrific sophomore campaign, he was working with new wide receivers. So it wouldn’t make sense to expect the Trojans' offense to pick up right where it left off last year. Recall that in 2003, USC went far under the total, as well, in its opener -- a 23-0 win at Auburn.

Part of the reason is just what I mentioned: it’s not the same offense, and Leinart had to get used to several new wide outs. A successful offense takes hours of practice and game-time to get in sync. Patterns need to be run, and quarterbacks need time to get in step with the receivers to whom they’re throwing the ball. It took many games together for great NFL pass-catching duos like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, or Dan Marino and Mark Clayton to reach their full potential. So, even though Leinart has been practicing hard with his new WRs, practice can’t duplicate game conditions, which are uniquely different.

Offense takes far more time to develop and reach its full potential than defense and this is something to be aware of so early in the season. It’s not that defense is easier to play, it’s just that there are far fewer plays and schemes defensively for coordinators to teach, and for players to absorb. Many college and pro football teams have offensive playbooks with hundreds of pages that take hours to memorize and practice. Did you notice what happened to rookie QB Philip Rivers this past weekend? After holding out for weeks, he finally signed with the Chargers and a few days later was thrown into action against Seattle. Not surprisingly, Rivers was terrible, and looked like a young man who hadn’t practiced with his new teammates much -- which he hadn’t.

But many NFL teams are struggling offensively and it’s much more difficult for the offensive coaching staff to try and fix things. Baltimore is a great example. The Ravens' defense has been hobbled by injuries this preseason, yet their defense has still been playing well. But the young Baltimore offense has struggled this August much like they have for the past two seasons. Think about this as you watch the lines on sides and totals over the next few weeks. If you see a number that looks suspiciously low, examine the two teams involved carefully and ask, "Is this a situation where oddsmakers have made a mistake?" Or is it a situation where the defenses are slightly ahead of the offenses. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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