#75 Kentucky Wildcats Preview

  #75 – Kentucky Wildcats 3-8 SU; 6-4 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  Kentucky is coming off a 3-8 season in 2005 which was pretty impressive considering what the Wildcats went through. Injuries hurt the team all season long, especially on the defensive side of the ball, as Kentucky allowed 34.1 ppg which was 107th in the country and the most allowed by the Wildcats since 2000. With a healthy team, Kentucky has a chance to be the most improved squad in the SEC as the schedule sets up very well in its favor. The Wildcats bring back 16 starters along with numerous players who got some good experience filling in a season ago. Head coach Rich Brooks is on the hot seat once again but this could be his best team in his four years at the school barring a repeat of the injury bug that occurred last year. A winning season is more than possible and that will likely be the only thing that will save Brooks from receiving the pink slip at the end of the year.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 9  The high powered offenses in Lexington have been a thing of the past the last two seasons but 2006 could reverse that downward trend. Nine starters are back including one of the best players in the conference that most people have never heard of. Tailback Rafael Little did it all for the Wildcats last year, leading the team in rushing and receiving while finishing 5th in the country in all-purpose yardage. He will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the conference as Kentucky welcomes back all five starters from last season. The biggest question marks are at quarterback and receiver but things are not ominous. Last year’s starting quarterback Andre Woodson will be pushed in the fall by sophomore Curtis Pulley, a gifted runner who took the majority of the snaps with the first team during the spring. The receiving corps is young and inexperienced but it is a very talented group and one that has the ability to make big plays with their speed.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 7  The Wildcats allowed at least 43 points on five different occasions last season including three of their last four games. Things will be better this year mainly because Kentucky is healthy and the recruiting problems that hung over the program for a few years is getting back to normal. The front seven is solid as some key players are returning from injury, namely senior defensive tackle Lamar Mills. Joining him on the line is sophomore Myron Pryor who came out of spring with the highest accolades of any defensive player. The secondary is led by cornerback Bo Smith, who was the Wildcats best defender in 2005 but it will be up to a lot of young players to shore up the passing defense. There are numerous playmakers on this side of the ball and if Kentucky can avoid the injuries that devastated the unit last year, it has the ability to be one of the better defenses in the SEC. Young players are going to play big roles so their maturation is needed early on.

 Schedule  Like any SEC team, the schedule is tough based on the strength of the conference but the Wildcats do catch some breaks along the way. They miss Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas from the SEC West while three of their five games in the SEC East are at home (Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt). Overall, Kentucky has just five road games and while four of those are sure losses against Louisville, Florida, LSU and Tennessee, at least those games aren’t taking away from some winnable home contests. Non-conference home games against Texas St., Central Michigan and La-Monroe are as sure things as possible so with some breaks going their way, the Wildcats can come out of the slate with six wins. The key game is a road game at Mississippi St. that could be the difference between a losing season or one that makes them bowl eligible.

 You can bet on…  Kentucky is just 6-24 in its last 30 road games and it will be tested right out of the gate against rival Louisville. The Wildcats played the Cardinals very tough last season in a seven-point defeat and it wouldn’t be surprising if they played them tough once again. Kentucky has posted winning ATS records in three of the last four years and this team has the chance to be better than all of those previous editions. The linesmakers likely are not going to be giving the Wildcats much credit early on (getting up to four touchdowns against the Cardinals in the opener) so that is where the best value could be. The home conference opener against Mississippi could be a good spot if getting points as Kentucky was solid 4-1 against the number last season as a home pup.

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