Defense, Defense!

You can’t not play defense and expect to win in football. You can’t win in any sport, for that matter. Many times we’ve seen teams with strong offenses run up and down the field, but if the defense has a weak spot or is bad overall, it will catch up with them at some point. Opposing teams, for instance, will key in on one weakness and then exploit it. Other times, a great offense will be out of synch one week, and not score as many points as they normally do. And a bad defense will be at a huge disadvantage. Offense and defense work hand in hand when it comes to winning.

Take a look at the worst run defenses currently in college football: Florida International, Illinois, Rice, Arkansas and Arizona. Interestingly, two of them (Arkansas, Arizona) have played No. 1 USC and, naturally, got smashed. But even so, notice that Arkansas still gave up 177 rushing yards to Louisiana-Monroe and 178 rush yards to Missouri State! All the teams in that list are giving up over 6 yards per carry to the opposition.

What else stands out about those teams? They are a combined 6-18 straight up and 8-13 against the spread. The worst pass defenses in college football are Rice, Air Force, Ball State, Florida International (there they are again) and Oregon State. The combined records: 7-17 straight up and 7-13 against the spread. The bottom line: You can’t win or cover the spread with poor defense.

Conversely, here’s a list of the Top 5 teams at defending the pass: UConn, Miami Florida, Texas, Tulane, and Alabama. Texas and Alabama are still unbeaten with shots at a national championship. It was ‘Bama that routed Florida recently in a key SEC showdown, 31-3. The combined records of those teams are 20-4 straight up and 13-9 against the spread. Again, the strong defense helps them win and cover. This is an example of how simple stats can help sports handicappers. Flashy offenses get a lot of publicity and even public money every Saturday against the number, but defense more often than not, is what wins – and covers!

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