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Welcome to part two of our pre-season Top 20 analysis. We will take a look at how each team has performed against the number since 2003, and determine when and if they will be a smart play this season. Will Wisconsin, the team with the best Big 10 win percentage over the last three seasons, finally get the respect they deserve? Can Virginia Tech bounce back from the tragedy in Blacksburg? How will Ohio State handle the beating they took from Florida? Find out the answer to each of these question and more as we preview college footballs number six through ten. Don’t forget to check back next week when we look at the schools ranked 11 through 15 this pre-season.
6. West Virginia
After back-to-back 11 win seasons for a combined 22-3 SU record, and a 38-12 mark over the last four seasons the Mountaineers have to be taken seriously. With all that winning they have to be a solid bet against the spread, right? Maybe not! Since 2003, they have a combined 24-22-1 ATS mark. They fare a little better in conference play with a 16-8-1 ATS record. At home, the Mountaineers struggle against the number posting a 6-11-1 ATS mark as a favorite, and a 3-3 ATS record as a dog. On the road they don’t fare much better with a 5-5 ATS record as a dog and 10-4 ATS as a favorite. So, if you have to play West Virginia only do it when they are a road favorite.
7. Wisconsin
The Badgers have the best record (31-7) in the Big 10 over the last three seasons. Last year they cruised to a 12-1 record and a perfect 7-0 at home to become the winningest team in school history. Have all those wins translated to cash? Let’s see. Since 2003 the Badgers are 30-19-1 ATS for 61 percent and in conference play they hold a 19-12-1 ATS mark. At home they are 12-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-1 ATS as a dog. On the road they are 9-5 ATS for 64 percent as a favorite and 7-3-1 ATS for 70 percent as a dog. You won’t lose any money playing the Badgers at home but they are a much better bet on the road, especially as a road dog.
8. Oklahoma
After a down year (8-4) in 2005 the Sooners bounced back with an 11-3 mark in 2006. Since 2003 Oklahoma has put together a solid 43-10 record. Things will only improve this season as the Sooners are loaded. They should be the cream of the crop in the Big 12. With all that winning the Sooners have been a surprisingly poor ATS team. Overall they have a 27-26 ATS record and in conference play they hold a 20-15 ATS advantage over the past four seasons. As a home favorite they are 13-12 ATS and as a road favorite they are 9-10 against the number. The Sooners have not been a home dog in the past four years and as a road dog they are 9-10 ATS. The bottom line; playing Oklahoma is a losing proposition.
9. Virginia Tech
After compiling a 39-13 mark, including three straight 10+ win seasons, the Virginia Tech community suffered one of the most devastating tragedies in U.S. history. The Hokies will be playing this season with black armbands to serve as a remembrance of that tragic day. The armbands will also be a huge motivational tool for both this team and the community as a whole. Will knowing this team is playing with a higher purpose this season translate into money in your pocket? Let’s find out. Over the last four seasons Virginia Tech has a 30-18-1 ATS record for 63 percent. Against ACC opponents they are 19-12-1 versus the number. At home the Hokies are 14-8-1 ATS for 64 percent as a favorite and 2-0 ATS as a dog. As a road favorite they are 10-9 ATS and 4-1 ATS as a dog. The Hokies appear to be a safe bet especially if you catch them as a road dog.
10. Ohio State
After a 12 week run as the nation’s number one team and a perfect regular season record, including wins against two No. 2 teams (Texas and Michigan), the Buckeye’s imploded against Florida 14-41 losing the national championship. With a 41-9 SU record over the past four seasons the 2007 Buckeyes shouldn’t suffer any lingering hangover from the disappointing end to last season. Let’s see if all those wins equal a payday for you and me. Since 2003 the Buckeyes are 30-20 ATS for 60 percent. Against Big 10 opponents they are 20-12 ATS for 63 percent. At home Ohio State racked up a 16-11 ATS mark as a favorite and is a perfect 1-0 ATS as a dog. On the road the Buckeyes are 4-2 ATS for 67 percent as a dog, and 9-7 ATS as a favorite. Look for Ohio State as a dog. Since 2003 they are 5-2 ATS for 71 percent when getting points.
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