Lean Toward Betting Against Big N.F.L. Favorites in September
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| Jack Clayton - 9/10/2011 11:44 AM |
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by Jack Clayton
September football generally offers a lot of surprises. One reason is that handicappers and linemakers are forced to look at statistics from last season when setting a number. And teams do not play the same from year to year, even if few faces have changed. Look at the New Orleans Saints. After finishing up as the seventh-best defensive team in the NFL a decade ago, the Saints seemed to fall apart last year, giving up over 25 points per game. Let’s not forget the New England Patriots, who went 5-11 SU in 2000, but 13-5 SU and 12-5-1 against the spread to win the Super Bowl. Teams can play very differently from year to year and it’s not surprising that the biggest surprises appear in September. Another reason for close games and more chances for upsets early in the season is that defensive playbooks are relatively simple the first month compared to an offensive playbook, which is filled with hundreds of pass routes and blocking schemes, it’s easier to learn defense in September than offense, and to act cohesively as a unit. This also partly explains why in the first week of two NFL seasons, 10 of 15 games have gone UNDER the total, then the next year’s opening week, the UNDERs went 10-5 and that included two overtimes games, both of which went UNDER! This makes for a good time to take a look at big September underdogs. During a 3-year stretch, teams in the first three weeks of the NFL regular season that were an 8-point dog or more went 16-7-2 against the spread. And it’s not uncommon for these big dogs to pull a huge upset and win the game straight up. In fact, you’re more likely to find these upsets in September than during any other time of the pro football season. So if you are a money-line player on big dogs, September is the time the big dogs bite the biggest. We saw this one season in the first week, where the dogs of eight-or-more went 2-1 ATS. Tampa Bay was a 9-point favorite at Dallas and won 10-6, while the Ravens covered (barely) in a win over Chicago, 17-6. But the biggest surprise came in Minnesota where the Vikings, a 10-point home favorite, lost straight up to Carolina, 24-13. The Panthers not only covered the number, but cashed in as a +400 money-line play. The Browns were a 9-point road dog at Jacksonville, but pulled off a 23-14 win, while the Colts were a 13-point road favorite at New England with fans and oddsmakers expecting a blowout. The Patriots were 0-2 SU/ATS with an injured QB. The game was a blowout, allright – the Patriots smashed the Colts 44-13. That is a good example of why betting big favorites on the money-line, especially on the road, is not recommended and can put a bettor in the poorhouse fast. And in September, it’s even more risky. There was a 4 year stretch where the combined marks of those big dogs in just the first two weeks of the NFL season were a solid 22-10-2 ATS. So the time to jump on those big dogs is around Labor Day, where September upsets in the NFL have surprised everyone except the smart bettor who knows better. |
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