2012 Football: Inside NFL Stats

2012 Football: Inside NFL Stats

by Jack Clayton

In the world of sports handicapping, not all stats are created equal. In fact, every team is actually two different teams, and it's essential if you want to win at sports betting to grasp this. How a team performs at home can be very different to how that same team plays on the road. For instance, a few years ago the Buffalo Bills defense allowed 22 ppg overall, which is below average. However, let's take these numbers a step further: that same season Buffalo allowed 28 ppg on the road and 17 ppg at home.

That's suddenly a significant difference. The Bills did play competitive at home, actually going 9-6 Su/ATS over 15 home games. The defense clearly showed an intensity at home. This is common with just about every team in every sport. Teams want to play strong in front of the home fans, as those fans are the ones paying the salary, really, of all the players and coaches. On the road, however, the Bills didn't tackle as well, getting ripped for 28 points per contest. That explains why Buffalo was competitive at home overall, but started a miserable 0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS on the road this season. For handicappers, that explains a great deal: Buffalo is more likely a team you look to back at home but fade on the road.

Effective coaching is another reason in this. Good head coaches can get their teams to play hard at home AND on the road. It's much easier to get a good performance out of your team when they're playing at home, but it's the really good head coaches who can coax an all-out effort from that same team wherever they play. Stats on every team you examine should be broken down first by home and away performance. Norv Turner's Oakland and San Diego have been bumbling and sloppy, and that shows up against the spread on the road. Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, by contrast, have exceptional road records in the NFL.

Let's look at the world of college basketball, where it happens with greater frequency. Vanderbilt of the SEC is a team that for several years now has been sensational at home, yet a very different team away from home. One year the Commodores were 17-2 straight up and 12-5 against the number in their home building. The team allowed 61 ppg at home, putting out a great defensive effort in most home contests. In their first home conference game that season they crushed Alabama , then topped Tennessee as a home dog 88-63! However, you couldn't even recognize this same group of athletes on the road, as the Commodores were 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS! They allowed 69 ppg away from home. So, they shot better, rebounded better and played much more spirited defense at home than on the road. It may sound strange, but the stats don't lie.

In the NFL one season the Baltimore Ravens started 4-2 SU at home where the defense, the backbone of the team, allowed 13 ppg. Yet, who were these guys in Ravens' uniforms on the road? Baltimore started 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS on the road allowing 25 ppg! Taking these numbers a step further, notice that the Ravens were just 4-3 "under" the total on the road, yet 6-0 "under" the total at home. If you like to play totals, the Ravens have been worth a look at under the total at home, but not necessarily on the road where the defense doesn't always show! This preseason the Ravens experimented with a no-huddle attack, so it will be interesting to see if they use it to start the 2012 season -- both home and away! Understanding home/road dynamics like this is essential in the competitive and ever-changing world of sports wagering.

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