Returning Starters

Returning Starters by Mike Neri

So do starters returning in college football make a difference? You bet! Before the season starts, football analysts have written and dissected the chances of college football teams. Returning starters, particularly star players at skill positions, are a huge key into predicting how well a team might play. With the season kicking off this week, this is a great time to analyze the pros and cons of returning starters.

For instance, why is Florida such a unanimous No. 1? Because they won the title last season? Partly, but it's more significant that everyone is back: 7 starters on offense, 11 on defense. Yes, star quarterback Tim Tebow decided to return for his senior season, but look who is returning on defense: all 11 starters. That is amazing, as you never find defending champs bringing everyone back on one side of the ball. Just as impressive is when you realize how good that Gator defense was last season.

Think back to the last time you saw them play. That was a 24-14 win over Oklahoma in January. Think about that Sooner team they beat: one of those most devastating offenses of all time, one that was ringing up 60-point performances in its last 5 games! That is, until that deadly group faced Florida, and the Gators held them to just 14 points.

If you think back a year ago, LSU was the defending champ, but had lost a ton of talent to the NFL, including its quarterback and star nose tackle Glenn Dorsey. By contrast, Oklahoma for 2009 brings back only 5 offensive starters, though 9 defensive ones. That's still pretty good, especially with Sam Bradford being one of them.

Hopes are high in Mississippi after first-year head coach Houston Nutt turned the program in one season during an electrifying 9-4 SU, 9-3 ATS campaign. That included a win over Florida, too. Hopes are high because 6 starters are back on offense, including QB Jevan Snead, and 8 on defense.

Naturally, some positions are more important than others, starting with quarterback. When Oklahoma lost in back to back years for the title to LSU (2003) and USC (2004), the Sooners had plenty of talent returning, but they lost quarterback Jason White, the focal point of the offense. Quarterback is the most important skill position on the football field, with the signal caller touching the ball every play. But the loss of White was devastating. In 2004 the Sooners averaged 35 points and 253 passing yards during their 12-1 campaign. But in September of 2005, without White, they averaged 21 points and 137 passing yards, including a 17-10 loss to TCU as a 25-point favorite!

At Tennessee, Phil Fulmer got fired last season during a terrible campaign largely because the offense was anemic. But was it really all his fault? People forget he had a four-year starting quarterback in Erik Ainge graduate, and new signal caller QB Jonathan Crompton turned out to be a bust in 2008. A plus for new Volunteers' coach Lane Kiffin is that 7 starters return on offense, 6 on defense - plus, expectations aren't as high.

Other times, a coach has to change the offense around the strengths and weaknesses of new signal callers. Stoops had to scale the offense way back before he hit the jackpot with Sam Bradford. It's also not uncommon to see a previously bad team get better in a hurry with a lot of returning players, especially early in the season. Southern Miss and NC State are off mediocre season, but played better down the stretch and have a lot of talent back. Playing together breeds confidence. So the first step in examining September college football is not just who is ranked 1-20, but what teams have a lot of returning starters and ones that lost a lot.

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