Not a lot of folks offer their first preview of the upcoming football season on the Mid American Conference, but since I attended a MAC school and grew up in Ohio before relocating to Vegas, the MAC makes the most sense for me to start with. So, with the Big 12 and ACC previews looming, we start with an attack on the MAC.
To get a feel for the 2012 MAC, a quick look at the 2011 season is important. In the MAC East Ohio University went 6-2 and beat out a 5-3 Temple team for the division title, with Kent State going 4-4, Bowling Green and Miami each going 3-5, Buffalo going 2-6, and Akron going a dismal 0-8. The West was top heavy with both Northern Illinois and Toledo going 7-1, Western Michigan going 5-3, Ball State and Eastern Michigan coming in at 4-4, and Central Michigan bringing up the rear at 2-6. NIU defeated OU in the MAC Championship Game by a 23-20 count, once against denying the Bobcats the conference crown - the second time in three seasons Frank Solich's team has lost the title tilt. OU did go on to win their bowl, and overall the MAC was 3-1 SU in bowls, 2-2 ATS, outscoring foes by 15 overall.
There are changes in store for MAC teams this year, as Temple has left the conference to (re)join the Big East, and U Mass - which was an FCS program - will be replacing them in the East. There are also changes in store at the top of the standings, especially in the West. What follows is a team by team look at the MAC in 2012, with predictions:
East:
1) Ohio U - I go through and rate every position for each team, giving each spot a grade, and then of course "grade" some intangibles as well. Usually teams end up with a positive or negative grade, with a rank of +4 or better boding well and the flip side of -4 or worse pointing towards a poor season. However, in the case of the Bobcats they came out completely Even after all the positives and negatives were measured. Seeing as how they won the division last year and went 10-4 overall, this "Even" could very well be enough to bring home not just a division title but (with all the changes in the West) also the league title, which would make everyone on Court Street very happy.
2) Kent State - The Golden Flashes were 5-7 overall last year but 4-4 in MAC play, and they figure to be happiest that Temple has left, as that gives Kent a real chance to grab the Eastern division. I rate KSU a strong +5.5 in my ratings, and seeing as how they host the Bobcats in the regular season finale for both teams, it would not be a stunner if KSU came from nowhere to win the division crown in Darrel Hazell's second year at the helm. Even if they do not make the MAC Championship Game, I do like KSU to make their first bowl...since 1972!!!
3) Bowling Green - My rating on the Falcons is +4, so clearly I like the direction this team is headed in. However, they play OU and Kent in back to back weeks late in the season, and hard to see them getting wins in both of those games, which is what they would likely need to get in the division title picture. I place them third over Miami since BGSU hosts that game.
4) Miami - I like the Redhawks, I do, but they were just 3-5 in league play last year and (at +3.5) they are not quite as improved as either Kent or Bowling Green, and seeing as how that aforementioned BG game is not only on the road, it is UM's third straight road game and 4th roadie in five weeks, have no choice but to put Miami down this low.
5) Buffalo - Bulls were 3-9 last year, getting wins over FCS Stony Brook and 1-11 Akron to go along with a very fortunate win over Ohio U. Like nearly every other team in the MAC East, UB is better this year than they were last season (+3 in my ratings), but the gap between them and the rest of the league is still big. They get the call for 5th place.
6) Akron - This is one of the more interesting stories in all of college football, as Terry Bowden has chosen Akron, yes Akron, as the place for him to return to college coaching. His coaching staff is, in a word, amazing, with former successful NC State coach Chuck Amato and younger brother Jeff on the staff, and you can be sure to see Bobby around the Rubber City more than once. The staff will make this team better....starting next year, as right now they are focusing on getting stronger and deeper, with the focus on wins coming later in the building of the program. Making matters worse, this team plays 12 straight weeks with no byes, so when they are staring at a 1-6 with games against NIU, CMU, and KSU looming, I would not be at all surprised to see Bowden just start playing freshmen. The Zips do host U Mass in the season's penultimate game and I look for a win there, but two wins seem like the max for this squad that, despite the massive coaching upgrade, was still only +.5 in my ratings.
7) U Mass - They were 5-6 last year playing a predominantly FCS schedule, and they are 0-5 the last five seasons when stepping up to play FBS teams, and they are not as talented this year (-2.5 grade) as they were a year ago. They do not have much back on offense, and while the defense has nine starters back, those nine were part of a "stop" unit that allowed 27.9 points per game last year against a schedule of ten FCS teams - and now they face 12 FBS teams and play in a high scoring league. Not sure where wins are coming from playing this schedule, especially since their "home" games are nearly 100 miles away.
West:
1) Eastern Michigan - Yes, that says Eastern Michigan. I am in love with the Eagles this year, as this team was 6-6 last season for rising star Ron English, and now he is in his fourth year, so all the seniors on this team are English recruits that played a lot of true frosh in the winless 2009 season...and they have led the way to the growth of this team. EMU was 4-4 in league play last year, won the "Michigan MAC Title" and get both Toledo and Northern Illinois at home this year. I have EMU as a MAC high +6 in my ratings, and (as you will see) I am not at all high on Toledo or Northern Illinois this year, so if EMU can beat WMU on November 17th they can - and I say they will - win the West title.
2) Western Michigan - The MAC media may choose the Broncos to win the West, and it will not be the worst of choices. I think this team IS a bit down from what they were a year ago (I have them -.5), but with the drop in talent for the top of the division from last year, WMU certainly deserves merit, especially since they host Toledo, NIU, and Eastern Michigan while avoiding Ohio U from the East. As such, not stunned if they were to win the West, but with a schedule that sees them playing 12 weeks in a row, have to wonder how they are going to deal with playing their most important game of the season in the final week of that trek.
3) Northern Illinois - If the MAC media does not choose WMU to win the West, then defending champ NIU will almost certainly get the call. However, while this team was 7-1 in league play a year ago, I rate them -2.5 coming into this year, with BIG problems on the offensive line, and with QB Chandler Harnish (leading rusher, 28-6 TD/Int ratio) now carrying Andrew Luck's clipboard, a porous O-Line will be exposed. Remember that this team was a combined 15-23 from 2007-2009 before Harnish began working his magic in back to back 11-3 seasons. I look for a drop-off.
4) Toledo - Rockets lost A TON of talent from last year's team, but may be over valued at the beginning of the season since the QB's (Owens and Dantzler) from a prolific offense both return. Even with those two talents back, I gave this team a -6 in my ratings, and the only reason I have them 4th instead of 5th is that Ball State has to travel to the Glass Bowl.
5) Ball State - This might be too low, as I have this team +3.0 overall in my ratings, and they were 4-4 in MAC play last year. The problem with this group is defense, as they have allowed 28.2, 30.4, and 34.7 ppg the last three seasons, and even though the interior should be better thanks to some transfers, the LB corps and the secondary is still suspect. However, if Lembo and Def Coor Jay Bateman can coax some decent play out of this group, the Cardinals have a chance for an upper tier finish in the West.
6) Central Michigan - This is VASTLY improved team, and at +5.0 I have the Chips as the third most improved team (behind EMU and Kent) in the MAC. However, the schedule is super tough as it includes road games at Northern Illinois, Toledo and Eastern Michigan, with the home games being BSU, Akron, WMU, and Miami. Hard to see more than three conference wins, and three is not going to be enough to crack the top of the West.
Thanks for your time....back soon with my Big 12 preview.
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