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Those of you that enjoyed the competitiveness and excitement of the Spurs and Mavericks seven game series will love the NBA Finals. That’s because this series is very likely to play out in much the same fashion. It would not at all surprise if this series goes the full seven games and it definitely should go at least six games. The Miami Heat are much better this year in comparison with last year. They are deeper and both Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade are healthier than they were last year. The sinus infection that Wade is getting over is nothing like the injury he dealt with in last season’s playoffs. The fact that the Heat dominated the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals also shows how far this team has come since last season. While the Mavericks are a tremendous story they are not going to be handed the NBA Championship on a silver platter. Let’s dig a little deeper and look at a few factors that may help us with our handicapping along the way as the NBA Finals get underway on June 8th.
Expect some tight games so keep an eye on taking the points in these games. Even though things change as a series goes on, coming into this series it certainly looks like it could play out very similar to the Spurs and Mavs. The key reason not to believe this will be the case is because of the Mavs deep bench. Depth is always a key in the NBA playoffs and especially at the late stage these teams are at…the NBA Finals. However, even though the Mavericks are getting all the publicity about being a much deeper team one could argue that the Heat have some hidden advantages in this area. One is in what might be called “top talent depth”. The Heat have Wade…the Mavs have Nowitzki. The Heat have Shaq…the Mavs have ??? That’s where the Heat have an advantage. It just seems that the Mavericks are going to struggle to match the top 1-2 punch, the inside-out punch, that the Heat are capable of delivering. Granted, the Mavericks are an extremely talented and deep team but…how will they stop Shaq and still pay appropriate attention to Wade on the outside? As far as overall depth, while the Heat may not go quite as deep as the Mavs, it’s hard to argue with how well some of their veteran acquisitions have worked out. Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, Gary Payton, and James Posey have brought a veteran presence to Miami and have added a lot to the depth of quality minutes produced by the Heat.
The “zigzag” theory also must be given some consideration in the NBA Finals. That’s where a series goes back and forth with one team winning one game and the other team winning the next game, and the pattern continuing throughout. That is a distinct possibility in this series and in any series situation it’s good to look at the bounce back team. However, be careful in overusing this. One must carefully consider the situation surrounding a game’s outcome. It is always nice to come back with a motivated team off of a loss but what if a key match-up disadvantage has been exposed and it’s something that, even with adjustments, will still be there in the next game? A key item in the “zigzag” theory is adjustments. A team can only bounce back if it has the personnel and the coaching to be able to properly make game plan adjustments to bounce back from a loss. If those two keys are adequately met than a bounce back is very likely to result.
As you can see from the above none of this is really “cut and dry” but then again, sports handicapping never really is! However, to summarize, in these NBA Finals it may pay off to take a long look at grabbing the points in many of the games. But always keep in mind the bounce back effect of a good team coming off of a loss. Regardless of the point spread that motivated team can prove to be a very tough opponent for any team to beat. As always, best of luck...Players Advantage, Inc.
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