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NFL Preseason:
Incentive!
by Bryan Leonard
One area to remember when trying to identify preseason NFL winners is incentive.
Some teams are more interested in playing hard than their opponents. This extra-motivation
can be a key ingredient in your handicapping analysis, especially in August
winning is less important than the regular season and the main goal of teams
is to stay healthy.
One example is the defending champion. You’ve heard the old motto of how
teams are always gunning for the defending champion, which makes repeating as
champ that much tougher. There is a lot of truth to that. If a team is having
a poor 3-7 season and is going nowhere, it can be a boost if the Super Bowl
champs are coming to town. In a sense, the players and fans can get fired up
for that one game, so that they can feel like champions with a win – even
when they are still 4-7 after the upset win. A year ago the Jaguars were 2-9
before playing the defending champs at home. As a +3 home dog, Jacksonville
played a strong game in a 17-10 upset. This can happen in preseason, too, and
last week the Patriots traveled to Cincinnati and as a favorite got beaten up
badly in a 31-3 Bengals win.
Another example of finding when a team might be more focused than the opponent
is in a revenge-setting. Even though it’s preseason, this occurred a few
weeks ago when the injury-riddled Cardinals traveled to the Vikings. Minnesota
had gotten knocked out of the playoffs in the regular season finale in a stunning
collapse at Arizona. The players and coaches were even talking about that loss
and how painful it was days before their preseason opener against Arizona. Minnesota
covered with ease in a 23-6 win.
Home field is another incentive. You have to remember that even though the games
are meaningless, fans are paying good money to see an exhibition game. NFL players
and coaches certainly don’t want to play poorly in front of the home fans
(the same fans responsible for their paychecks). It’s common to see a team
play lifeless football on the road in August, but far more common to see them
play with more passion and incentive at home. Notice that after two weeks of
preseason, the home team is 20-11 straight up and against the spread. It took
two very late scores by visiting teams Tennessee and Dallas this weekend to
win and cover, as well, otherwise the home teams would be 22-9.
But remember that talk can be cheap, too. Houston coach Dom Capers spoke last
week about his team keeping up the good play they exhibited the week before
in an 18-0 home win over Dallas. The truth is, the Texans had little incentive
to play hard, off of a big win and traveling to their first road game at Pittsburgh.
Houston was 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the number on the road in preseason
under Capers. Talk certainly was cheap as the fired up Steelers – their
first home game this August – rolled 38-3 as a 3½ favorite. Successful
handicapping is like a gold prospector digging in the hills – it requires
sifting through and weighing all the important data, quotes and situations carefully
to find the really valuable pieces that will turn hard work into profit.
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