Tom Strykers Big 10 Preview - Sat. Nov. 13th

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Tom Stryker - 11/12/2010 4:57 PM

The Big Ten football chase continues to be a tale of the Big Four – Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. And all four are expected to continue their winning ways this season. If that happens it sets an exciting stage for the final two regular weeks of the season.

All four have one league loss, and none of the leaders play each other this Saturday. All four are ranked in the nation’s top 13. Prospects for any of the four to reach the BCS championship game are long shots at best, but there is plenty at stake in the remaining weeks of November. Let’s take a look at this week’s action.

Iowa at NORTHWESTERN

Coach Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes dodged a fatal bullet last Saturday when a closing-minute, game-winning touchdown pass was dropped by Damarie Belcher of Indiana. So the Hawkeyes have to be ready when they travel to Evanston before finishing at home against Ohio State and on the road at Minnesota.

Iowa, 7-2, 4-1, is fifth in the nation in rushing defense (85.2 yards) and sixth in the nation in scoring defense (14.3 points). So quarterback Dan Persa will have to be on his game if the Wildcats, 6-3, 2-3, are to have any chance. Persa, whose quarterback efficiency rating is 159.94 (11th in the nation), is also the team’s leading rusher with 469 yards.

Iowa’s senior wide receiver, a favorite target of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, became the school’s all-time reception leader in the game at Indiana. He has 163 catches in his years for the Badgers.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa is 20-8 SU and 16-12 ATS in the last 28 meeting with Northwestern including 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.

KEY ANGLES:   Northwestern is 26-11 ATS priced as an underdog going into revenge including 17-6 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

Iowa is a miserable 3-15 ATS when priced as a double-digit revenging favorite.

Michigan at PURDUE

After being outmanned by Wisconsin, the limping Boilermakers (4-5, 2-3) now must face the potent Michigan offense. Michigan put up 67 points in a triple-overtime victory over Illinois last Saturday.

Quarterback Denard Robinson, who has rushed for 12 touchdowns and thrown for 13 more, did not play in the final stages of that game with concussion-like symptom. But sophomore Tate Forcier has plenty of experience and he led the Wolverines (6-3, 2-3) to a game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter and continued to play well through the three overtimes.

Freshman Sean Robinson, who started the fall as probably the No. 5 quarterback on the depth chart, started and played the entirety against the Badgers. He was 19-38 for 141 yards and one touchdown. Coach Danny Hope knows he will need bigger numbers than that against Michigan.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan is 19-5 SU and 13-11 ATS in the last 24 meetings with Purdue. However, the host in this Big 10 series stands 16-8 SU and ATS in the last 24 battles.

KEY ANGLES:   Purdue stands 30-13-1 ATS at game eight of the season or later coming off two or more straight up losses.

Michigan is a weak 4-14 ATS in its last 18 tries priced as a favorite.

Indiana at WISCONSIN

Wisconsin, at 8-1, 4-1, is ranked No. 5 or 6 (take your choice of polls), the highest in the Big Ten. Bret Bielema’s Badgers are ranked 7th in the latest BCS standings and is hoping that a sweep of of their final three games could produce some national title chances. After Indiana, Wisconsin visits Michigan, then closes at home against Northwestern.

Indiana’s objective is not so simple. The Hoosiers are 4-5, 0-5, and know that Wisconsin averages 35.4 points per game (a school record pace) and also averages 5.13 yards per rush. Quarterback Ben Chappell, who riddled the Iowa defense for 25 of 35 and 323 yards, will need a huge game for Indiana to stay with Wisconsin.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Wisconsin is 15-9 SU and 12-11 ATS in the last 24 meetings against Indiana.

KEY ANGLES: Wisconsin is a profitable 21-12 ATS at home in conference play checking in off a straight up win provided its opponent arrives off a straight up loss.

Indiana is a surprising 24-13-1 ATS on foreign soil coming off two or more home games including a juicy 16-7 ATS priced as an underdog of +7’ or more.

Minnesota at ILLINOIS

Minnesota (1-9, 0-6) probably can’t wait for the fall to end. Interim Coach Jeff Horton knows his team is giving up 33.8 points a game and will be hard-pressed to slow down an Illinois outfit that scored 65 in a triple-overtime loss at Michigan last week.

Coach Ron Zook’s Illini (5-4, 3-3) still need this one to become bowl eligible. Nathan Scheelhaase continues to impress at quarterback for Illinois. In the last three weeks he has completed 43 of 66 passes for 529 yards and 9 touchdowns. Illinois has averaged 50.7 points in the last three games- laughers against Purdue and Indiana, and then the battle at Ann Arbor a week ago.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE:   Illinois is 12-9-1 SU and 10-11-1 ATS in its last 22 meetings against Minnesota including 4-2-1 ATS if priced by -10 or more.

KEY ANGLES: Illinois is a weak 23-41-3 ATS at home facing a sub .500 opponent including a stiff 7-17 ATS in this role provided its foe enters off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.

Minnesota is a weak 12-19-1 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog.

Penn State at OHIO STATE

Yes, Joe Paterno notched his 400th victory last week at Penn State. But did you know that Ohio State’s Jim Tressel, with 237 victories is second to Paterno among active FBS coaches?

Penn State (6-3, 2-2) scored 35 unanswered points to erase an early deficit last Saturday against Northwestern. But sophomore Matt McGloin, who threw for 225 yards and four touchdowns, will need a similar effort if the Nittany Lions are to be any threat to the host Buckeyes.

Ohio State (8-1, 4-1) is averaging 42 points a game while giving up only 13.6 each outing. Quarterback Terrell Pryor continues to post big numbers. He is 5th in the nation in passing efficiency at 165. 2. The Buckeyes are 26-4 in November in Tressel’s years at the helm. Ohio State, one of the conference’s four co-leaders, travels to Iowa before closing the year at home against Michigan.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State is 11-7 SU and ATS in its last 18 battles with Penn State including a nearly perfect 7-1 SU and ATS in its own backyard.

KEY ANGLES:   Ohio State is a tremendous 54-11 SU and 41-23-1 ATS in its last 65 games as a Big 10 host.

Penn State is a miserable 21-37 ATS as a guest tackling a winning team including a stunning 11-25 ATS in this role checking in with momentum off a straight up win of seven points or more.

NOTE: Michigan State is idle this weekend.

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