NFL Team Props Part III

In my first NFL team proposition reports I featured the Browns and Bengals, both teams I feel will finish ‘under’ the posted number. In this installment I’m going to take a look at a team that isn’t a cellar dweller, but can’t be viewed as a top-tier organization either. Sitting right in the middle of the pack, this is a team that I expect to challenge for the NFC West title; here are my reasons why I think the St. Louis Rams will finish ‘over’ the projected number.

St. Louis Rams OVER 7 ½ Regular Season Wins

The Rams finished the ‘06/’07 season 8-8 ‘straight up’ and 9-7 ‘against the spread’. St. Louis finished in the top ten in offensive production, averaging just under 23 ppg., but they were brutal on the other side of the ball, teams averaging a whopping 23.8 per contest which was good for 28^th in the league. St. Louis is going to have their hands full this year going up against the perennial division contender Seattle Seahawks, the much-improved San Francisco 49’ers and the underachieving Arizona Cardinals, but I feel that this team has everything in place to challenge Seattle for the division title; let’s break down their schedule:

Week 1: vs. Panthers                                   Week 9: @ Saints

Week 2: vs. 49’ers                          Week 10: @ 49’ers

Week 3: @ Buccaneers                   Week 11: vs. Seahawks

Week 4: @ Cowboys                                 Week 12: vs. Falcons

Week 5: vs. Cardinals                                  Week 13: @ Bengals

Week 6: @ Ravens                         Week 14: vs. Packers

Week 7: @ Seahawks                                 Week 15: vs. Steelers

Week 8: vs. Browns                                    Week 16: @ Cardinals

Let’s look at the “gimme’s” first: Week 3 in Tampa, Week’s 5 and 16 vs. the Cardinals, Week 8 against the Browns, Week 12 at home to the Falcons and Week 14 against the Pack. The Rams should have no difficulties winning all six of these games, but could stumble on the road against division foes Arizona. 5-1

The Rams and Panthers last butted heads on Nov. 19th 2007, and the Panthers came away with the 15-0 shut out victory. Carolina is 10-7 lifetime vs. St. Louis: a tough team to start the season against. 0-1

St. Louis played the 49’ers twice last year and went 1-1 ‘straight up’ and 0-2 ‘against the spread’. They get together twice this season as well and I expect a similar result this year. While the 49’ers are much improved, they prefer playing outdoors. Rams get the home-and home-split. 1-1

In Week 4 the Rams stampede into Dallas to try and wrangle the Cowboys. These teams don’t meet often, the last time they did was on New Years day, 2006, and St. Louis came away with the 20-10 road win. In my opinion Bulger is a better pivot than Romo, and behind workhorse Steven Jackson, the Rams pull off the minor upset. 1-0

The Ravens and Rams have not played against each other for almost four years. The Ravens were one of the top teams last season, and will play that roll again this year. Their defense should be tops as well. Able to stop the pass and run effectively, the Rams will be swarmed by the Ravens in Week 6. 0-1

St. Louis and Seattle are bitter rivals and over the last twelve years these teams are even at eight games apiece, however, the Seahawks have owned the Rams over their last four engagements. Although the Rams covered with the spread both times last season, they went 0-2 SU. As both teams will be challenging for the NFC West crown, I expect a competitive couple of games and give the Rams the home-and-home split. 1-1

In Week 9 the Rams storm into New Orleans to tangle with the Saints. The last time these teams met was the pre Reggie Bush and Drew Brees era. New Orleans had the most productive offense last season and they should have a similar campaign this year. Although I do expect the Rams to put up a good fight in this contest, they won’t have enough in the tank. 0-1

The last time the Bengals and Rams played each other was in 2003. Both teams have changed significantly since then. St. Louis will be in tough on the road, late in the year against a determined Cincinnati squad. 0-1

That leaves the Rams Week 15 matchup vs. the Steelers at home, another team that the Rams rarely see. The Rams should be in the hunt for the division crown at this point and be very determined to seal a victory. The Steelers shit the bed last year and although they have looked better in the preseason, the Rams should get the job done at home. 1-0

A quick tally has the ‘07/’08 Rams finishing at 9-7. St. Louis has the potential to finish even better than this mark, but even if they are upset by one of the ‘gimme’s’, the worst they’ll finish is 8-8;the same as last year.

With last year’s NFL leader in combined rushing and receiving yards in workhorse Steven Jackson and competent QB Matt Bulger, and with improvements over their defensive front, the ‘over’ 7 ½ total wins for St. Louis is worthy of consideration.

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