Keep Close Eyes on the Schedule

When analyzing what game a team is playing each week, it’s also important to look at what games they played last week and what’s on tap the following week. Pro and college football teams do, and the truth is come teams don’t always take EVERY game as seriously as they should. Scheduling is one reason. The Cowboys and the Giants are playing a big NFC East showdown on Sunday. Which begs the question: Were the Giants thinking about that game last Sunday? You remember what happened: The Giants let a 21-0 lead slip away in a stunning 24-21 loss at Tennessee. Perhaps their focus, once up 21-0, was on the Cowboys, and not the Titans.

I’m not saying that was the main reason they fell apart, but I am pointing out that teams often look ahead to a “more important” game on the schedule coming up. There can sometimes be a let down by the team looking ahead, or a rested team can have an edge. This can happen with bye weeks, which some college football teams are still benefiting from. Bye weeks allow coaching staffs extra time to prepare and players to spend two weeks resting their bodies and getting healthy. Teams can often have several edges with two weeks to prepare.

We all saw what a great season Rutgers has had. It’s hard believe now, but just two years ago Rutgers was off a big win over Michigan State early in the season. The following week they played Division 1AA New Hampshire, which – on the schedule – looked like a breeze of a game. Yet, the overconfident Scarlet Knights lost the game straight up. Clearly their focus was not on the field that afternoon. Other times you can anticipate when a coach might empty his bench late in a “cupcake game” when they have a far more important battle on tap the following week. For handicapppers, you can use the schedule to get a sense of when a backdoor cover is more likely.

Sometimes you can find coaches and players in local newspapers admitting they’re not 100% focused for an upcoming contest. This happened last week when Purdue coach Joe Tiller admitted his team wasn’t happy with the long flight to Hawaii for a non-conference game that really didn’t mean anything. That’s part of why you saw the betting line jump from 17 to 21 as the money poured in on Hawaii. At 17-0 Hawaii at the half, things looked great for the bettors, until a wild second half gave Purdue the cover.

A few weeks ago Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis admitted that while they were playing Army on the schedule, the coaching staff had been preparing for USC – their NEXT opponent! Last month both Michigan and Ohio State played sloppy games, and nearly lost as huge favorites, two weeks before they faced each other. Players admitted they were thinking about the upcoming No. 1 versus No. 2 rivalry game, rather than on weak opponents like Ball State.

One other thing to keep in mind: This weekend, the Houston Texans play at the Oakland Raiders. It will be the fifth road game over the last 6 games for Houston! The schedule-maker really stuck it to the Texans, an unusual (and brutal) road stretch. It will be interesting to see if they look tired. Good handicappers know that you don’t always just look at this week’s games to find potential trip-ups, scheduling quirks, road trips, and look-ahead spots.

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