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One of College Basketball's Toughest Encore's
Emotion plays a big part in sports. It doesn't matter if it's football, basketball
or baseball, one team is usually "getting up" for another. Thankfully, this
emotional part of the game exists because it leads sports handicappers and investors
to an array of profitable opportunities. This specific technical situation is
one of my favorites. It assembled from criteria that flat out works in the three
major sports that I handicap. Here's a peek at a system that I call, "One of
College Basketball's Toughest Encore's."
System: PLAY AGAINST any college basketball conference home favorite
of -14 or more coming off a straight up road underdog win provided they are
matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .500 or less.
Record Since 1990 = 103-63 ATS for 62.0 percent
This hardwood system preys on a letdown theory that has been making money in
football, basketball and baseball over the years. Here we have a team installed
as a high-priced home favorite that returns home off an emotional upset victory
and finds itself matched up against an opponent it could probably beat in its
sleep. If you simply look at the parameters that make up this technical situation,
it's easy to understand why it makes money. Why would a team show an interest
in pummeling an inferior opponent especially after pulling off a dramatic upset
on the road? This emotional letdown makes perfect sense.
There are a few additional tighteners to this general situation that really
make it pop. First, if our host smashed the pointspread in its last game and
beat the line nine points or more, this system dips to a stiff 40-67 ATS. Obviously,
if a team was undervalued before the linemaker will compensate for his mistake
and could place too much value this time around. Also, with our 40-67 ATS in
hand and our home team carrying a won/loss percentage of .590 or better, this
unique situation crashes to a shocking 27-53 ATS. Obviously, the better teams
have more trouble rebounding emotionally off that upset victory.
There is one additional parameter that really makes this system pop. Out of
our 26-51 ATS set, this technical situation crashes to a woeful 17-39 ATS provided
our "play on" team enters off a straight up loss. This makes perfect sense too.
One team is off an emotional high and suffers a letdown while the other enters
off a blemish and is locked into a rebound mode.
On Saturday's basketball card, there are two home favorites that could fit this
technical situation and a couple of the tightener's involved: Drake and Utah
State. Make sure the Bulldogs and Aggies are favored by at least -14 points
or more! I'll be back next week with another awesome angle for you to use on
your weekly assault with "the man". TS
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