BCS Hysteria: No. 1 vs. No. 2!
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| Jim Feist - 1/4/2010 3:55 PM |
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by Jim Feist
Happy New Year! After recovering from the weekend’s New Year festivities while celebrating and analyzing sports picks, we glide through the end of the bowl season. The GMAC and Orange Bowls are appetizers for the tune-up that is the January 7 Texas/Alabama showdown for all the marbles. Orange Bowl (Tues., Jan. 5): This game is outdoors in Miami's Land Shark stadium pitting a pair of dynamite ground games. Iowa (10-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) was unbeaten through October, a lumbering miracle with a plodding offense and tough defense, before November brought injuries and back-to-back losses to Northwestern and Ohio State. They are not pretty, but have a great defense and a terrific offensive line. The offense (23 ppg) prefers to run the football behind offensive tackles Bryan Bulaga and Kyle Callaway. Junior QB Rick Stanzi (15 TDs, 14 picks) missed the last month of the season with a severe ankle injury, but should be ready. He is 17-4 as Iowa's starting quarterback. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets boast blue-chip talent and an offense that averages 307.2 rushing yards per game - second-best in the nation, behind Nevada's 362.3. The Hawkeye defense is allowing just 122 yards per game on the ground and ranks 10th nationally in scoring, giving up only 15.5 points a game. Georgia Tech (11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is a machine on offense under Paul Johnson, with speed all over, led by running QB Josh Nesbitt (10 TDs, 4 INTs, 991 yds rushing) and superstar RB Jonathan Dwyer (1,346 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TDs), the 2008 ACC player of the year. The Yellow Jackets rank 11th nationally in total offense (442.7 ypg). Georgia Tech won the ACC title outright for the first time since 1990. The only concern is a defense that allows 24.8 ppg. The run defense was gouged for 338 yards by Georgia. Georgia Tech also had a 28-23 win, rushing for a staggering 309 rushing yards against a great Virginia Tech defense. (Follow Jim on Twitter at https://twitter.com/JimFeistSports). GMAC Bowl (Wed., Jan 6): Troy (9-3 SU/7-5 ATS) started off with two bad performances, but this offense is clicking behind senior QB Levi Brown (22 TDs, 9 INTs), averaging 33 points 331 yards passing and 141 rushing. They’ve scored 27, 30, 31, 33, 50, 42, 40, 20, 47 and 48 points the last ten games (9-1). Central Michigan (11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) has a great offense behind senior QB LeFevour (27 TDs, 6 picks), averaging 33 points, 172 yards rushing and 244 passing. He is a terrific running QB (701 yards), and has top targets in senior WR Bryan Anderson (700 yds) and junior WR Antonio Brown (1,020 yds). One concern is Coach Butch Jones just left to take over at Cincinnati. Associate head coach Steve Stripling was named interim coach for the Chippewas' bowl game. This could be an offensive show, though those into sports picks should note that CM is on a 6-2 under the total run with an improved defense. BCS Title Game (Thurs., Jan., 7): From the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, No. 1 meets No. 2. There's an old trend about teams with a Heisman Trophy winner doing poorly in bowls and 'Bama RB Mark Ingram just took home that hardware. Alabama (13-0 SU/8-4 ATS) is a loaded team, especially on defense, outscoring opponents by a 31.7-11 average. The ground game is stocked behind Ingram (1,542 yds, 6.5 ypc, 15 TDs) and Trent Richardson (642, 5.1 ypc), while junior QB Greg McElroy (17 TDs, 4 INTs) has been efficient behind this run-first attack. They have looked vulnerable down the stretch, needing a blocked field goal to survive a 12-10 win over Tennessee and a thrilling comeback at Auburn, 26-21. Auburn outgained Alabama 332-291 and dominated on the ground 151-73. They erased any skeptics with a sensational 32-13 drubbing of No. 1 Florida in the SEC title game, with 490 yards (251 rushing). Alabama is on a 6-3 run under the total. Mack Brown won a title with Texas during the 2005 season and has a chance for another. Texas (13-0 SU/5-7-1 ATS) is loaded for four-year starting QB Colt McCoy (27 TDs, 9 picks) and senior WR Jordan Shipley (1,292 yds, 11 TDs), averaging 40.7 points, 152 yards rushing and 279 passing. The Longhorns have won 17 straight overall, tops in the nation. The Longhorns had a few close calls along the way, too, beating Oklahoma (16-13) and needing a last second field goal to survive Nebraska (13-12) in the Big 12 title game. Texas has a Top 5 defense under coordinator Will Muschamp, who has installed a more physical attacking unit that is allowing 15 ppg. In fact, Muschamp masterminded the defense for Saban that delivered the 2003 LSU national title. The biggest concern is the Texas offensive line, which was humbled against Nebraska to the tune of nine sacks of McCoy. Texas is 58-7 SU, 42-22 ATS the last four+ seasons, and when looking at totals for sports picks they are on a 36-21-2 OVER the total run. The first Tide title since 1992? Or a Heisman jinx to give Texas a claim on Team of the Decade? |
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