THE NBA PLAYOFFS - The EASIEST game of all
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| Tom Scott - 4/18/2008 9:25 PM |
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Tom Scott, a 31-year veteran of sports handicapping has been extremely productive
on this site during the NBA playoffs over the last two years. Read what he has
to say about this years NBA tournament. THE NBA PLAYOFFS - The EASIEST game of all by Tom Scott Over the last two years, our powerful systems have produced magnificently and our guaranteed picks on this site logged an incredible 21 wins in just 30 calls to the post. This event is the easiest of all sporting categories to handicap. That 21-9 mark is about average for me and I have made a ton of dough over the last 31 years using only those angles. Many of my personal wagers show up on the guaranteed picks page throughout the playoffs. It would behoove you to check that page daily during this tournament. That said, let us move to one of our best NBA playoff angles. BEWARE OF THE BIG WINNER The title of this article is more accurate in these playoffs than in any other sport at any other time of the year. Teams off those big wins just don't come back with the same fire in the next game in any sport but the rate of failure is significantly higher here, as you will see. I started this study by looking at all playoff teams who won their previous playoff game by 20 or more points. I was astounded to learn that, in the 163 games in which one team (BUT NOT BOTH) won by that margin, the big winner covered the spread in only 64 of them. Therefore, we start our system with this simple premise: PLAY AGAINST any team in the NBA Playoffs who won its previous playoff game by 20 or more points. That record is 99-64 ATS for 61% winners. Before I go any further, let me insert a STOP SIGN! I'll explain the reason for the sign at the end of this article. Adding parameters to the 99-64 base set yields these results: If this is the first round of the playoffs - 43-24 for 64% AND the PLAG (the team we are playing against) is favored by more than three points - 30-13 for 70% AND the PLAG has a WL% of less than .720 - 20-6 for 77%. The numbers above come from all playoff games since the 1990-91 season, a total of 2566 games. Obviously, this angle doesn't come up every day (less than 7% of the games fit), but it's well worth your time to wait for these plays and pounce on them when they do occur. THE STOP SIGN EXPLANATION. In all of the handicapping angles that I present to you through this site, I try to hone each system to a 75% or better win average. You should note that the parameters that create those high percentages but to ignore the 61% set that preceded them is foolish. If you can make 163 bets and win 99 of them, you are going to make a lot of money. My point is that, although I always bring the angle up to a high percentage, the money is made with the volume of plays at a lower but still profitable percentage. In today's angle, I gave you additional parameters that brought this system to a stunning 20-6 record. That 77% angle looks great and is certainly worth remembering. However, the man who bets $100 per game on the 20-6 angle makes a net profit of $1340. The man who heeds the STOP SIGN and bets $100 per game on the 99-64 system makes a net profit of $2860, more than DOUBLE the money of the high percentage player. It's important that you understand this concept. Once again, I remind you to check the guaranteed picks page daily for my NBA Playoff selections. These time-tested systems win every year. There's no reason to think that they won't win again this season. Good Luck, Tom Scott |
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