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Pro Football Notebook: Week 8
by Mike Neri
Off Field Distractions: Sports bettors use stats, trends and angles
when analyzing upcoming games and point spreads. But don't overlook the importance
of off the field issues, as well. This is obvious with the New Orleans Saints.
This is/will be a forgettable season for the Saints, a displaced team that has
to do something unprecedented, play most of its games on the road. That alone
is a monumental hill to climb.
However, there's far more to it. Owner Tom Benson lunged at a television news
crew Sunday, grabbing a camera and wrenching it downward. He was frustrated
by the team's 21-6 loss to Miami Sunday. This is the same owner who, a year
ago, criticized his coaching staff by suggesting after a defeat that his team
looked like a high school team. Compound all the problems with a poor coaching
staff, an undisciplined, sloppy team and a bad defense, and this is a group
that will likely pack it in soon. A housecleaning is likely, too. The Saints
are 1-3 SU/ATS on the road where they are getting outscored by a 33-14 average.
They likely will continue to be a good team to wager against the rest of the
season than on.
Rebuilding 49ers: And speaking of bad defense, even though San Francisco
has a stunning 15-10 victory Sunday as a +11 home dog, don't overlook the fact
that this is still a terrible team. They are last in the NFL in total defense
(427 yards per game) and second to last in offense. They upset the Bucs with
an unorthodox approach, stacking the defensive line to take away the run because
kid QB Chris Simms was starting for Tampa Bay. How often will that approach
work? San Fran only had 208 total yards in the game. In their only other win
over the Rams, St. Louis had the edge in yards that game 405-217!
More on the 49ers: Reduced to one healthy quarterback, the 49ers this
week signed veteran free agent Jesse Palmer. Rookie Alex Smith, the top overall
selection in the draft, is battling a sprained right knee. Backup Ken Dorsey,
who started last week's game, has a left ankle injury and is in a walking boot.
San Francisco may be forced to start Cody Pickett, who finished up last Sunday's
victory over Tampa Bay. Youth, inexperience, and a 4th string QB are not a recipe
for success. Don't forget San Fran is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road where they are
getting beat by a 41-11 average!
Champions Defense: The Patriots got a win over Buffalo Sunday night,
but played very poorly. It appears the key to any success is going to be the
run defense and the health of DE Richard Seymour. He's been out the last three
games (knee) and the run defense has been terrible. The first three games of
the season, the defensive line was outstanding. They were brilliant in a loss
to the Panthers and wins at Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The catch is that Patriots
HC Bill Belichick is very secretive about injuries and it's tough to get a true
gauge on when he will play. They sure could use him Monday night against the
Colts. It's also worth nothing that Seymour missed the first two playoff games
in January when the Pats beat the Colts 20-3 and won 41-27 at Pittsburgh. But
this run defense appears to be weaker and really needs him.
Paper Lions: Adding veteran QB Jeff Garcia still hasn't ignited the
anemic Lions offense. They've scored 20, 13 and 13 points the last three games
(2 losses). Now Garcia is hurting and they may have to go back to Joey Harrington
this weekend. The guess here is that Harrington will only make this bad offense
even worse. There is too much talent for this offense to be this bad. The Lions
hope the expected return of wide receivers Roy Williams and Charles Rogers for
Sunday's game at Minnesota will expand their offense. Playing the Vikings defense
should help, too. In only one game, a 35-17 victory over Baltimore, has the
offense scored more than two touchdowns!
Who Will Take Charge in the NFC? The Eagles are the 8th-worst team in
the NFL in total defense. Can we all agree that they've lost several steps from
a year ago? Donovan McNabb has a serious injury, WR Terrell Owens is ailing,
and the defense isn't as good as a year ago. So who's going to step up and take
charge in the NFC if the Eagles are on the way down? This offers good future
wagering value. The Redskins, Falcons, Cowboys, Seahawks, Panthers and Giants
all could make a postseason run with a few breaks, like the Panthers had two
years ago.
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