Michigan at Ohio State: An Early Look

Let’s face it: There will be two national championship games in college football this season. One will come in early January as No. 1 meets No. 2. But the first one to get excited about takes place next week as No. 2 Michigan heads to No. 1 Ohio State. Both are unbeaten.

Before that game takes place it’s going to be interesting to see how those teams play this weekend with cupcake games against Northwestern (Ohio State) and Indiana (Michigan). Interesting because, from a betting standpoint, it might be a good spot to back the dog, as a backdoor cover is a possibility. After all, both Michigan and Ohio State have to be more concerned with playing each other and might play it safe with key players, especially in the second half. That appeared to happen last week as neither team covered as huge favorites. Michigan benched players late and watched Ball State come back and make it a 34-26 game as a +26 dog. Ohio State topped Illinois 17-10 as a 25-point favorite.

Looking ahead to the Big Game at the Horseshoe, Buckeye coach Jim Tressel has had Lloyd Carr’s number, as Ohio State has gone 4-1 SU/ATS the last five years against Michigan. The Wolverines were favored in two of those losses.

The backbone for this Michigan team is an extraordinary defensive line that is allowing 30 yards rushing and just 1.3 yards per carry. You say those stats are skewed because they have played Vanderbilt, Central Michigan and Ball State? Okay. In Big 10 play Michigan is allowing 32.3 yards rushing per game, just 1.3 yards per carry.

Some very good news is that Michigan’s offense, which had been sagging in recent weeks, welcomed the return of star wide receiver Mario Manningham the last game, who had missed the previous three games while recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery. He didn’t do much, but he was in there just to see how his knee feels. The word is that he feels great. He will certainly be needed in two weeks.

If there is a knock on the Michigan defense, it is that the secondary has some weaknesses, aside from CB Leon Hall. Pay close attention to this week’s game against a decent Indiana passing game. The Hoosiers will challenge the Wolverines defensive backs with 6-foot-7 WR James Hardy. It could be a good test for Michigan’s secondary with probable Heisman winning QB Troy Smith on deck.

Ohio State has a deadly offense with the mobile senior quarterback and great speed at wideout with Ted Ginn, Jr. They average 34 points per game. The Buckeyes were expected to have a great offense, but the defense lost a lot of key players from a year ago. The defense has been outstanding, allowing 7.6 points per game and even less that in Big 10 play. Ohio State is 9-1 under the total while Michigan is 7-3 under.

Buckeyes quarterback Troy Smith didn't do much to help his Heisman Trophy campaign last week against Illinois, throwing for 108 yards and no touchdowns in his worst game of the season. However, he still has a sizzling 22 TDs, 3 picks and has completed 66% of his passes. Ohio State came into Illinois having won every game this season by at least 17 points, so perhaps the close game helped.

In fact, before that when was the last time Ohio State played a close game? A year ago in a 25-21 win at Michigan, needing a 13-3 fourth quarter to squeeze out the win. Looking back at that game, it’s interesting that Ohio State put up the superior numbers, with an edge in yards 418-255. They even had 118 rushing yards. QB Smith was the star shredding the Michigan secondary on 27-of-37 passing for 300 yards, one TD and no picks. Michigan had just 32 yards rushing, a mere 1.3 ypc. And the game was AT Michigan!

Ohio State won on RB Antonio Pittman's 3-yard run with 24 seconds left to cap an 88-yard drive that included a series of spectacular plays by Smith. "Troy is probably the best we've seen," Wolverines defensive tackle Pat Massey said. "Troy was a difference maker out there." Michigan QB Chad Henne had to throw because Michigan couldn't run, and was 25-of-36 for 223 yards and a TD. Michigan will have to earn it this year: The Buckeyes are 34-2 SU, 24-10-1 ATS their last 36 home games!

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