FREE National Title Game Preview from Triple Threat Sports!
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| Triple Threat Sports - 1/10/2011 5:05 AM |
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We dropped a heartbreaker yesterday with our Bowl Play of the Year on Nevada, our first loss on our Bowl Play of the Year in five seasons. Big plays are not supposed to be close, and we fully realize that, but the way BC got their final, covering, points was painful to watch, and for all the clients that joined us yesterday we are truly sorry for the loss. Since we lost that play, we decided to post our entire analysis on the title tilt in article form instead of Pay After You Win. We hope you enjoy it... ...As for this championship game, we said when the game was announced that we thought the line should be Auburn -3...and now the line is Auburn -3. As such, not going to get really excited for this one. However, it is the title game, so lets take a long look at the matchup. Auburn comes into this 13-0, with ten of the wins against BCS conference teams (nine vs SEC tms, one vs ACC's Clemson), two vs Sun Belt teams, and the other vs a Div 1AA team. They scored 24 or more in a dozen games this season, and more than 35 on five occasions. They are better defensively than given credit for, as a lot of the points they have given up have come either with reserves in the game late, or early in games before the coaching staff and players have "figured out" what the opponent is trying to do. Best example of this is the Bama game, as what looked like a sure loss at halftime turned into a win thank to the heroics of Heisman winning QB Newton, but also due to the defense. If the Tigers win this game it will be because of a key defensive stop. Oregon comes into this 12-0, with 11 wins coming against BCS foes, and notably one did come against an SEC opponent, as the Ducks beat Tennessee 48-13 in Knoxville. That was before the Vols were playing well, and it WAS a close first half, but unlike some other teams that have fallen to SEC teams in title games, the Ducks do have some experience against the conference. UO is here thanks to a great offense, led by QB Thomas, RB James, WR Maehl, and a lighting quick offensive line. Incredibly, the Ducks scored more than 37 in 11 of their 12 games, and the one time they were stymied there was allegations after the game that Cal had cheated by faking injuries to keep the UO offense slowed down. The Duck defense, despite playing a lot of minutes due to the fast strike capability of the offense. However, they did hold six foes to 16 or less points, and that was in the "defense optional" Pac 10, so while the offense gets all the pub, the defense is pretty good as well, and in fact won them that Cal game, only giving up 13 points in that one. This is only the second bowl for the head coaches. Auburn's Gene Chizik is 1-0 thanks to an overtime win over Northwestern last year while Kelly is 0-1, with that loss coming in the Rose Bowl last year in a not as close as it seems 26-17 loss to Ohio State. The Buckeyes had a 26-12 FD edge in that game and only gave up 260 yards, with the key being a grind it out offense that took every play clock down to :02 or less, and then let Terrelle Pryor do his thing. Since Cam Newton is a faster, if a little less accurate, more dynamic version of Pryor, have to think Chizik saw what Ohio State did and will try to do some of the same things here, as his Tigers have the same size edge that OSU had over the Ducks last year. This is the first meeting of SEC and Pac 10 teams in a bowl in quite some time, but while the SEC has had a representative in the national title game four years running (posting a 4-0 SU and ATS record) it is the first recent national title game bid for a Pac 10 school, with USC's epic 2005 loss to Texas being the last entry. All in all, we like both teams, and as good as TCU is, the winner here will be well deserving of the trophy. If the Oregon defense is as good on the field as they show on paper, then the Ducks have a real shot here, but cannot shake the memory of last year's Rose Bowl, and this Auburn team is better than that Ohio State team was. Will go with the SEC team to extend its streak in these title tilts, and since the total is so startlingly high, have to lean a bit with the Under as well, noting that the previous five title games have seen 58, 38, 62, and 55 points, with the closest game to this line still being 12 points away from today's total. Enjoy the game! |
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