Second Half Football Wagering

Creative prop and halftime wagering is becoming more and more popular. Just as important, it can offer excellent wagering value. For instance, there were prop wagers offered on QB Tom Brady to throw over or under 1.5 TD passes Monday night against the Vikings. This was a good spot for the over, because even though New England has been a run-first team this season, the Vikings have the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. If the Pats were going to score, it was reasonable to assume it would be via Brady’s arm rather than trying to run at the No. 1 run defense. Brady had two TD passes in the first half!

Another type of wagering is first and second half bets. Here’s an old betting angle that still works in the right spots: Look at second halves to go under the total if the home team has a big lead, usually 17 points or more. Most coaches lean toward the conservative side with their play calling and game plans. The intent is to get a lead, then run the ball and get off the field fast with a win. Playing it safe means running the football, which keeps the clock moving.

A fast-moving clock limits the chances for injuries. No coach wants to run the hurry-up offense with a 24-0 lead, then watch a couple of receivers come down with injuries. It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Also, coaches have a tendency to start thinking about next week’s game. Let’s not show too much with our offensive playbook, let’s just get out of here with a win.

As a result, many games can be low scoring in the second half, particularly if the home team has a big lead. There was no better example than the Chicago Bears Sunday. Chicago tortured the Cardinals with a 41-0 first half lead! They didn’t score a point in the second half, while Arizona scored 10. That second half sailed under the total easily.

There was no need for the Bears to open up the offense in the second half with a 41-0 lead. Rather, the game plan was simple – no mistakes, go to the running game, play the field position battle and use one of its strengths – defense – to keep the lead and ice the win.

Naturally, it helps to have the home team with a big lead, and that team is capable of running the football well, playing good defense, or both. Weather conditions, too, are beginning to play a part in handicapping as we slip into November, with cold and wind becoming a factor. Teams with big halftime leads in cold, windy conditions are even more likely to run the football and get out as fast as possible.

Even scheduling is worth looking at. No. 18 Boston College had a 24-0 halftime lead at home on Buffalo last Saturday, then the team totaled just 17 points in the second half. This happens more often in the NFL, especially with conservative coaches who have reliable running games and above-average defenses. Teams that currently fit this model, if they at home with a big first half lead, would be the Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, and Jaguars. Yes, we all look for games and point spreads to beat, but don’t ignore halftime wagering, either, because there are all kinds of methods to build your betting bankroll.

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