#107 Arkansas St. Indians Preview

  #107 – Arkansas St. Indians 6-6 SU; 5-6 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  The Indians made an improbable run last season, winning the Sun Belt Conference title and making a trip to the New Orleans Bowl. Arkansas St. will still be at the top half of the conference this season but it lost a lot to graduation so repeating as champion will be a tough chore. The Indians won the close games a year ago as their final four SBC wins were by a combined 19 points. They went though some inconsistent games on offense last season and with a lot of question marks on that side of the ball in 2006, more inconsistency is on the horizon. Arkansas St. needs to replace over 4,000 yards of total offense between the quarterback and duel tailbacks and that isn’t going to happen overnight. The defense was surprisingly solid and that side of the ball is going to have to carry this team a great deal. The return of linebacker Josh Williams, who was suspended all of last season, won’t draw big headlines but by year end he will have the conference comeback player of the year solidified. The rushing defense finished 96th in the country last year and that will no doubt improve.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 6  The loss of quarterback Nick Noce and tailbacks Antonio Warren and Shermar Bracey accounts for 90 percent of the offense being taken away. Youth and inexperience will take over at those key positions so things could be very uncertain early on. The strength of the offense is at receiver where all four of the top players are back and getting them the ball will be a priority. As far as the running game goes, it might not be as precarious as first thought since the offensive line brings back three starters including all-conference center Tanner Jenkins. Whoever does get the ball at tailback will have one of the best blocking fullbacks in the league with Oren O'Neal, a bruiser at 248 pounds. O’Neal rushed for only 34 yards on 13 carries but he will be getting the ball a lot more this season.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 8  The defense will be strong against the pass once again as the secondary returns three starters including both safeties. The Indians were 27th in the country in passing defense, allowing 191.7 ypg while giving up just 193 completions. The corners are new but do have experience. The rushing defense was a liability but the return of Williams at middle linebacker already makes them a better team. The defense allowed seven points or less in three games last season but also allowed 31 or more points six times so getting some consistency is key, especially with an offense that will struggle out of the gate. The Sun Belt will have some strong offenses across the conference this season and it will be up to Arkansas St. to keep those units in check.

 Schedule  The schedule is not very kind to the Indians. Non-conference games against Oklahoma St., Memphis and Auburn will be sure losses while contests against Army and SMU are not easy. There are only four true home games on the slate, three of which are Sun Belt tilts. The back end of the schedule does not get better as four of the final five games are on the road including the game against Auburn. The final game of the season at UL-Lafayette could determine the conference champion if Arkansas St. finds a way to take care of business early on especially at Indian Stadium. Home games against UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee are virtually must win games if there is any chance of a repeat of 2005.

 You can bet on…  Low scoring games will be the norm which will be completely opposite of last year. The Indians had the offense to be able to outscore the opposition but this season the defense is going to be the key element. This should be a stronger team on defense and with a young offense running the slow, don’t expect many shootouts. Arkansas St. was 7-3-1 over last year with five of its seven road games surpassing the total. Games against Oklahoma St. and Southern Mississippi were decided by less than two touchdowns so the Indians proved they could hang with the big boys. That likely won’t be the case this year but it will get them prepared for a difficult yet manageable conference schedule.

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