Strykers Big 10 Preveiw - Sat. Nov. 20th

Back to Article Listing

Tom Stryker - 11/19/2010 10:55 AM

And now there are three. Northwestern’s late rally and upset of Iowa last Saturday leaves only a three-way tie atop the league standings. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State all are 9-1 and 5-1 in Big Ten play with only two weeks of action remaining.

Wisconsin still is the highest rated of the three and carries the highest BCS standing (7th), but the Badgers have new detractors after they ran up 83 points a week ago against Indiana. None of the leaders plays each other this week or next week – but the upset bug could help decide this fall’s Big Ten championship.
Here’s a look at this week’s action.

Ohio State at IOWA

Coach Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes are still smarting from the late loss to Northwestern and would like nothing more than to bump the Buckeyes from their lofty position. Iowa, 7-3, 4-2, is fourth in the nation in rushing defense – allowing only 86.8 yards a game. And it will take that kind of effort to slow Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, 9-1, 5-1.

Already bowl eligible, the Hawkeyes could earn a more attractive holiday destination with the upset. But the Buckeyes are even better defensively than Iowa, yielding only 238 yards a game – second among all FBS schools.

Terrelle Pryor continues his assault on the OSU record book. The sophomore has passed for 2,138 yards thus far - his second consecutive 2,000-yard-plus season.

Ohio State has either won or shared the conference crown for five consecutive years.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State is 17-4-1 SU and 16-6 ATS in its last 22 meetings with Iowa including a spotless 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS provided the Hawkeyes check in off a straight up loss.

KEY ANGLES: Ohio State stands 44-6 SU and 34-15-1 ATS on foreign soil matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up loss 33-3 SU and 28-7-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite of -23 or less.

Iowa owns a 54-11 SU and 38-20-2 ATS mark at home including a stunning 12-1 SU and 11-1 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

Wisconsin at MICHIGAN

Rich Rodriguez’ Wolverines, 7-3, 3-3, can say plenty about who wins the Big Ten. After Saturday’s home finale against Wisconsin, UM travels to current co-leader Ohio State for the season finale.

Michigan’s defense, ridiculed all season long, allowed only 16 points in a victory at Purdue last week – and it will take an even better effort to slow down the powerful Badgers, 9-1, 5-1.

Fifth in the nation in total offense at 521.8 yards a game, Denard Robinson and company will need to put some points on the board to overcome Wisconsin. Robinson, with 1,417 rushing yards so far this year, needs only 78 more to become the top single-season quarterback rusher. Beau Morgan set the record for Air Force in 1996.

Wisconsin can counter with Scott Tolzien, who has completed 76.5% of his passes in the past four games. And the Badgers have that bruising running game as well. In fact, Wisconsin is the only team in the nation with three 500-+ rushers in John Clay (929), James White (714) and Montee Ball (513).

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan is 18-6 SU but 9-14-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings with Wisconsin including a woeful 2-8 ATS if the Wolverines faced a conference foe last.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan is a horrendous 6-18 SU and 3-20-1 ATS in its last 24 Big 10 battles including a startling 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.

Wisconsin is just 12-19 ATS in Big 10 play checking in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

Purdue at MICHIGAN STATE

Mark Dantonio’s Spartans can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten crown with a victory in West Lafayette Saturday and another next week at Penn State.

Michigan State is 9-1, 5-1 and mixes the pass and run extremely well. Sophomore Edwin Baker has rushed for 979 yards ant 11 TDs, while Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham are quarterback Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets. Dell has 123 catches for 2,100 yards in his career, while Cunningham has caught 130 passes for 1,696 yards. Cousins is 171 of 261 this fall, for 2,277 yards and 15 TDs.

Calling all quarterbacks! That is the battle cry for Purdue, who is dipping to No. 5 perhaps for this Saturday’s game. After losing their starter early in the season, Purdue has used Rob Henry, Sean Robinson and Justin Siller, who hadn’t taken a snap since 2008. All of them have various dings – or at least various deficiencies. Who will perform well Saturday is a major question. Danny Hopes’ Boilers are 4-6, 2-4, and have to upset Michigan State and then beat Indiana to become bowl eligible.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan State rests 14-12-2 SU and 16-11-1 ATS in its last 28 against Purdue including a profitable 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in this role in its last 11 in East Lansing.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan State is a juicy 41-25 SU and 39-26-1 ATS at home from game eight of the season out including 25-5 SU and 21-9 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off a SU loss.

Purdue is 12-74 SU and 33-53- ATS in its last 86 on foreign soil facing a winning team.

Illinois vs Northwestern

This battle of Big Ten teams will be played at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. Northwestern, 7-3, 3-3, is the home team.

Coach Dan Fitgerald’s Wildcats went from euphoria to disappointment in a a matter of seconds last Saturday. Quarterback Dan Persa threw a late touchdown pass to beat Iowa, but tore his Achilles tendon without contact on the play. He is done for the season. Redshirt freshman Evan Watkins will start. At 6-6, 235 pounds, he is a physical presence, but he has only thrown 7 passes this season.

Illinois lost a chance to become bowl eligible last week, being upset 38-34 by Minnesota. Ron Zook’s Illini need this one. They close next Saturday at Fresno State. Nathan Scheelhaase continues to improve as the season goes on. The Illinois’ quarterback has completed 53 of 87 passes in his last four games, for 701 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois holds a 16-14 SU and 11-19 ATS in its last 30 meetings against Northwestern including a miserable 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite.

KEY ANGLES: Northwestern is a rewarding 73-45-2 ATS priced as an underdog or a favorite of -3’ or less provided the Wildcats are matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.

Illinois is a woeful 23-48-1 SU and 28-42-1 ATS coming off a straight up home loss including a nasty 8-22-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite or a underdog of +4 or less.

Penn State vs Indiana (at Landover, Md)

Go figure. The Hoosiers are the home team, but this matchup will be played at FedEx field in Landover, Md. Don’t be surprised if the crowd has a distinctive Penn State flavor to it – based on the distances from both schools.

Bill Lynch’s job status may be shaky at best after last week’s embarrassing 83-13 defeat at Wisconsin. And he needs a victory over Penn State and next week at Purdue to become bowl eligible.

Most of the IU hopes rest on the arm of Ben Chappell, who has 548 career completions, but who didn’t play in the second half after being banged up early against the Badgers. Indiana has not won a Big Ten game this season (6-4, 0-6).

After being crushed in the second half at Ohio State a week ago, Penn State wants to finish a victory over Indiana and then again next week at home against Michigan State to enhance its bowl stature. Matt McGloin likely will see most of the action at QB, while career rushing leader Evan Royster could have a banner outing against the porous Hoosier defense.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State holds a commanding 13-0 SU and 7-6 ATS record in this series against Indiana.

KEY ANGLES: Penn State 19-9 SU and 17-10 ATS in its last 28 after allowing 30 points or more last.

Indiana is a soft 12-19-2 ATS priced as an underdog of +9’ or more when matched up against an opponent that scoots in off a SU and ATS loss.

NOTE: After tasting victory for only the second time this season in an upset of Illinois, Minnesota is idle this Saturday. The Gophers host Iowa next week.

Back to Article Listing