NBA Go-Against: Hot Shot Shooters

There are many facets to winning basketball, both straight up and against the spread: coaching, motivation, defense, home court, revenge. And, of course, the ability of players to put the ball in the hoop – offense.

One aspect that’s tricky about offense is that some nights it simply isn’t there, no matter how good a team is at shooting. That is, there are times when a coach can call a timeout and scream at players if he feels the team is playing lethargic. Or, playing defense is a matter of effort – you don’t usually lose the ability to play defense, it’s mostly about work.

But offense is different. If a guard misses ten straight wide-open shots, a coach can’t call a timeout and yell at the player to make a shot. There are some nights when the basketball just doesn’t drop through the hoop. How many times have you seen great players blow a lay-up or a free throw? It happens. Back in June the Dallas Mavericks were ice-cold much of the last four games in the NBA Finals, especially from three-point land.

They didn’t shoot poorly because of a lack of effort, it was just one of those times when the ball wasn’t dropping in. In Game 1 of the 1985 NBA Finals, the Lakers and the Celtics met and it pitted two of the best defensive teams in the league. Yet, Boston shot 58% for the game, and led 79-49 at the half on the way to a record-setting 148-114 rout. Everything the Celtics tossed into the air happened to drop through the hoop. Of course, they didn’t shoot even close to that averages the rest of the series, losing 4 of the next 5 games.

Here is an angle that incorporates shooting percentages into finding handicapping edges. If an NBA team shoots 50% of better from the field, there is a likelihood they will not shoot that well the next game. That took place this week with a poor shooting team, the Houston Rockets. The Rockets shot lights-out against Golden State, shooting 53%, in a 118-90 win. Even the bench shot 14-of-25. However, the next game Houston traveled to Minnesota and shot just 34% while scoring 84 points. They lost and failed to cover.

It’s not easy to shoot 50% or better these days, unless you are the run-and-gun Phoenix Suns. An even better wagering angle is when a team shoots lights out and still loses the game, it gives you an edge to bet against that team the next game. One reason is simply the law of averages: If a team shoots 50% or better for one game and they shoot 44% as a team for the season, that club is a little more likely to shoot 44% or worse the next game.

Taking this method a step further, the last three years, if a team shoots 50% or better and still loses, when they are an underdog in the next game they are only 12-22 ATS. This isn’t surprising as it’s tough to shoot 50% from the field AND LOSE. This generally means the team doesn’t play much defense. So when you realize that the next game this poor defensive team is likely to shoot poorly, they can be a good go-against. Sports bettors should check the boxscores each and every day. And when tracking NBA stats, keep track of teams that shoot 50% and lose, because it may provide a good spot to bet against that team the next game.

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