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The Secret of My Super Bowl Success
By Ben Burns
Although my personal Super Bowl winning streak goes back a number of years
before my picks became available online for the public, this article will focus
on the nine Super Bowl selections that I have released since my picks became
independently documented.
I've begun by briefly discussing my basic playoff theory. That's followed by
a recap of my nine winning Super Bowl selections. Lastly, I've gone out on a
limb and boldly offered a prediction for this year's big game. Enjoy the article
and see you in the fall!
Why I love the NFL
One of the reasons that I love handicapping the NFL is that, unlike the three
other major North American sports, every game is extremely significant. With
the importance attached to each game, its usually much easier to determine which
teams will be fully motivated. This is magnified in the 'sudden-death' style
playoffs and ultimately in the Super Bowl when one knows that every team will
be giving its maximum effort. After all, there's nothing worse than watching
a baseball, basketball or hockey team 'go through the motions' knowing that
it will play again tomorrow, regardless of how badly it loses today!
Playoff Theory
For a variety of reasons, my football picks are generally 'contrarian' in nature.
This means that I'm often on the opposite side of the general betting public.
During the playoffs, particularly on 'Super Sunday' the number of public bettors
increases exponentially. In other words, there are a ton of recreational bettors
wagering on the over-hyped team that they watched dominate on television the
previous week!
As we know, the oddsmakers are attempting to create a number which will effectively
balance their action. With the influx of 'squares' wagering during the playoffs,
the oddsmakers are forced to inflate the 'public side' slightly higher than
normal, or risk getting unbalanced action. Therefore, it stands to reason, that
the 'less attractive' side often presents us with the best pointspread value.
Naturally, I don't just blindly bet against the public. In fact, there are
occasions where I will join the masses. However, when my handicapping process
determines that the unpopular side is the 'correct' side, then I don't hesitate
in pulling the trigger. This approach has paid dividends as I've managed done
very well with my playoff picks and am 9-0 with my Super Bowl picks, since coming
online in 1998.
Beneath, in recapping those victories, I've attempted to share some insight
into the reasoning behind each of my selections.
Documented Super Bowl Records
2006 Selection(s): Pittsburgh/Seattle UNDER
Both teams had seen their games finish 'over' the number in the Conference Finals.
As a result, I felt that the 'total', which opened at 47 and closed at 46, had
become inflated and was too high. Both teams had shown a tendency to play low-scoring
games when playing in a dome and 12 previous series meetings had averaged only
33 points. The final score, of 21-10, proved to be the lowest scoring Super
Bowl in more than 30 years!
2005 Selection(s): Philadelphia and UNDER
I believed that both teams were very evenly matched. I also felt that both defenses
were excellent and expected to see a close, relatively low-scoring game. Despite
a scoreless first quarter, the 24-21 final came precariously close to the 'total',
which ranged from 46 to 47. The Eagles (+7) got on the board first and were
tied entering the fourth quarter. However, they found themselves trailing by
10 points until McNabb capped a 79-yard drive with a 30-yard touchdown pass,
with less than two minutes remaining, to earn the 'cover.' Cashing both the
'side' and 'total' was a sweet way to finish the season!
2004 Selection(s): New England/Carolina OVER
Both defenses were coming off exceptional games in the Conference Finals. The
Panthers held the Eagles to only three points while the Patriots limited the
high-powered Colts to only 14. Due to those results, the majority of the betting
public expected a low-scoring game and played on the 'under.' I also had a great
deal of respect for both defenses. In fact, I successfully played on the 'under'
in BOTH the Patriots victory vs. the Panthers AND the Panthers victory vs. the
Eagles. However, considering that every Super Bowl since 1976 had produced a
minimum of 36 points, I felt that the 'total' of 38 was too low. The game started
off very slowly and remained scoreless well into the second quarter. It appeared
my string of Super Bowl victories was in jeopardy. However, the offenses suddenly
exploded and the teams would finish with a whopping 61 points!
2003 Selection(s): Tampa Bay and OVER
This was clearly my favorite Super Bowl ever. I LOVED the Bucs and still can't
believe they were actually getting points! For starters, I had played Tampa
Bay, at 18-1 odds, to win the Super Bowl before the season started. Prior to
the season, I also made this prediction publicly, for the entire world to see,
at Vegas Experts, on my website, AND in another prominent national football
magazine. I played on the Bucs (-6) when they smoked San Francisco 31-6 in the
semis. I again successfully played on Tampa Bay (+4) in the Conference Finals
and they pounded Philadelphia 27-10. After watching those games, I felt extremely
confident that they would do the same to the over-rated Raiders. They did! Tampa
dominated the game, finishing with an easy 48-21 victory and sailing 'over'
the total (44) by 25 points. It was a wonderful way to end a superb season.
What a party!
2002 Selection(s): New England/St. Louis UNDER
The Patriots had never won a Super Bowl title and weren't getting much respect
against the mighty Rams. Like almost everyone else, I wasn't convinced that
Brady and co. could pull off the improbable upset. However, I had seen the Patriots'
defense allow an average of only 12 points in their previous three playoff games
and I felt that they had a solid chance at slowing down 'the greatest show on
turf.' I also felt that the 'total' of 53 was too high and that the value lay
with the 'under.' The Pats would give up a lot of yards (427) but their defense
forced three turnovers and the final score of 20-17 stayed well underneath the
inflated number!
2001 Selection(s): Baltimore/New York Giants: PASS
I respected the Giants and had successfully played on them in the NFC Finals
when they massacred Minnesota, as 2 1/2 point underdogs, by a 41-0 score. However,
I also respected the Ravens and had played on them when they dispatched Denver
21-3. I didn't feel strongly about going against either team, and didn't want
to force a play, so just decided to 'pass' and enjoy the game from a fan's perspective.
2000 Selection(s): St. Louis/Tennessee UNDER
The public was big on the 'over' but I felt that the total of 48 or 49 was too
high. The Rams took a 9-0 lead into halftime until both offenses woke up for
a wild 30-point second half. On paper, the final score of 23-16 appears to have
fallen well below the number. As anyone who watched the game will remember,
it could have been a much different result if Kevin Dyson didn't get stopped
at the 1-yard line.
1999 Selection(s): DENVER
I had a great deal of respect for both teams as I had successfully played on
the Falcons (+10) in their 30-27 upset of the Vikings in the NFC Finals and
had also successfully played on the Broncos (-8.5) in their 23-10 victory over
the Jets in the AFC Finals. I felt that the Broncos (-7.5) were the superior
team though and decided to lay the 'chalk.' John Elway, in his last game, passed
for 336 yards and ran for a touchdown to earn most valuable player honors as
the Broncos scored a relatively easy 34-19 win and 'cover' while becoming the
first AFC team to win consecutive Super Bowls since the Steelers did so 20 years
earlier!
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