The NFLs Final Four

The NFL's Final Four
By: Ben Burns

After another exciting week, we're down to four teams. The Colts will host an old nemesis, the Patriots, in the AFC while the surprising Saints will march to Chicago to face the Bears in NFC.

I've begun this week's column by recapping the stats from the current playoff season. It’s always wise to study history, so that's followed by a look back at the results from the past five Conference Championships.

Playoff Recap: Home teams went 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in the Wildcard round with three of four games falling below the total. However, the Divisional Round belonged to the underdogs with all four visiting teams earning the cover, and two of them winning in straight up fashion. Two of the four games finished below the number. That gives underdog bettors a 6-2 ATS mark for the current playoff season and brings the Under to 5-3.

Conference Championship History

2006: There was a minor upset in the AFC as the Steelers (+3) traveled to Denver and knocked off the Broncos by a score of 34-17. The favored home team was victorious in the NFC, as the Seahawks (-6) beat up on the Panthers 34-14. Both games finished Over the total.

2005: The Patriots (-2) went to Pittsburgh and snapped the Steelers' 15 game winning streak with a convincing 41-27 victory. Brady outclassed Roethlisberger, who failed to become the first rookie QB to lead his team to a Super Bowl. The game finished above the number by a whopping 30 points. In the NFC, McNabb and the Eagles (-4.5) shook off three consecutive Conference Championship losses by crushing Vick and the Falcons by a score of 27-10. The final score managed to stay below the 'total' of 41.

2004: On a cold day in New England, Ty Law and the Patriots (-3.5) put Manning and the Colts on ice. Law had three interceptions and the Patriots won 24-14. Carolina (+5) was even more dominant defensively as they limited the Eagles to only a field goal in a 14-3 victory. Both games fell below the number.

2003: The temperature was in the 30s and the Bucs were 1-21 in franchise history when the temperature was below 40. The cold didn't prove to be a factor though as Tampa Bay (+4) upset the Eagles by a 27-10 margin in the final game at old Veteran's Stadium. The final score finished above the low total of 34. The AFC Final resulted in a shootout as the Raiders (-7.5) outscored the Titans, 41-24. At the time, few would have guessed that it would be one of the last quality performances that the Raiders would deliver for the next four years!

2002: The Patriots (+8) weren't being given much of a chance at Pittsburgh. Brady, Belichick and co. would score the 24-17 upset though with the final score finishing above the total of 36. The Rams (-11.5) knocked off the Eagles 29-24 but weren't able to cover the large pointspread. The final score just managed to eclipse the high total of 51.5.

If we tally up the above results we find that favorites and underdogs were an equal 5-5 ATS. Note that four of those five underdogs won their games in outright fashion. Seven of the 10 games finished above the total. Another point which stands out is that the games generally weren't that close. Nine of 10 games were decided by a minimum of a touchdown (eight by double-digits) and all were decided by at least five points. I decided to look back a little further and discovered that there has never been an AFC Championship game (since they began playing them in 1970) which has been decided by less than three points and that only four of 36 games were decided by a field goal.

Over in the NFC, we find that only two of 36 Championship games were decided by less than a field goal. Those two games were way back in 1990-91 (San Francisco vs. New York Giants) and in 1981-82 (San Francisco vs. Dallas). Note that every game (in either conference) has been decided by a minimum of five points this entire millennium.

WOW! finished an absolutely amazing regular season as the #1 Documented Handicapper at the Bigguy Sports Monitor, adding to his commanding lead (against 150 others) in the All-Time standings. Ben didn’t stop there though! The NFL Champ has gone a sweet 7-1 in the first two rounds of the playoffs and is now documented at a simply remarkable 41-15 his last 56 playoff picks!

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