2009 ACC Coastal Preview

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 9-4 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U

Summary: Georgia Tech did not disappoint in head coach Paul Johnson’s inaugural season as it made it 12 straight bowl appearances for the program. It got waxed by LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl but it was still considered a successful season and one to definitely build on. The Yellow Jackets bring back 18 starters including 10 on offense both of which are the most in the ACC. Georgia Tech finished fourth in the nation in rushing offense and the option-based spread attack will be just as strong led by quarterback Josh Nesbitt and running back Jonathan Dwyer. The goal is to become a better passing team as the Yellow Jackets finished a disappointing 116th in the nation in passing.

Schedule: The schedule is not exactly in the favor of the Yellow Jackets but it isn’t horrible either. They start with a cupcake against Jacksonville St. and then head right into ACC action with three consecutive games against Clemson, Miami and North Carolina, the first and third both being at home. They catch both Virginia Tech and Wake Forest at home but have to travel to Florida St.

Bottom Line: I think Georgia Tech has the edge in the division based on the returning starters as well as getting the Hokies at home following its three-point loss in Blacksburg last season. This offense is tough to contain and with a year under their belts, the Yellow Jackets will be even stronger. If a passing game emerges, Georgia Tech could be the team to beat in the entire ACC.

Betting Forecast: The Yellow Jackets are 17-8-1 ATS coming off a loss since 2003 so keep an eye on these situations if they arise in 2009.

Virginia Tech Hokies 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-8 O/U

Summary: A lot of the preseason magazines tabbed the Hokies for a three-peat in the ACC but the loss of Evans as mentioned cannot be understated. He set the school freshman rushing record and there isn’t a capable replacement at this point. It will be up to quarterback Tyrod Taylor to somehow improve an offense that finished 103rd overall last season and that was with the 35th best rushing offense which shows how bad the aerial attack was. Taylor tossed two touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing just 57.2 percent of his passes. Like many times in the past, the stout Virginia Tech defense, which was 7th in the country last year and returning seven starters, will be asked to carry the load.

Schedule: Virginia Tech has just five true road games on the slate and it starts with a neutral site game against Alabama. Four of the next five games are at home with the lone road game coming at Duke so the first real true road test will be at Georgia Tech on October 17th and that game will go a long way in deciding the division. The remainder of the schedule after that is relatively tame.

Bottom Line: Unlike the Yellow Jackets, the offense does not seem to have anyone that it can lean on, just not yet anyway. Taylor split time his first two seasons so with no one looking over his shoulder anymore, he may be more relaxed and may be a better overall quarterback. We do know the defense is good enough to carry the Hokies, as we witnessed last year, but it may not be good enough in 2009.

Betting Forecast: After a 12-7 ATS run as home favorites from 2004-2006, the Hokies are just 3-7-1 ATS in that role the last two years and that will likely continue.

Miami Hurricanes 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U

Summary: The Hurricanes made it back to the postseason after missing out on a bowl game in 2007 when they finished 5-7, their worst record since 1977. Things look to heading back in the right direction but it has been a rough stretch as Miami has not won double-digit games since 2003. Getting back to that plateau will be tough with the schedule it faces but winning the division means an extra game and guarantees 14 games so it is possible. The offense was a below average 89th overall last season so out went offensive coordinator Patrick Nix and in came Mark Whipple from the NFL. He is the fifth different coordinator in five years so it is hard to access how much better the offense can be even though eight starters are back. The defense has had back-to-back abysmal seasons by their standards (26 ppg and 24.2 ppg allowed) and it needs to get its swagger back.

Schedule: The schedule does Miami no favors early on as it starts the season with games against Florida St., Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. The backend of the schedule eases up quite a bit as a home game against Clemson and a road game at Wake Forest are the real tough tests. The other three non-conference games are all in-state against Florida A&M, UCF and USF.

Bottom Line: If Miami can somehow come away with a split in those first four games, it will be considered a success and while the rest of the season is certainly not easy, it would provide some much needed confidence. That is something that this program has lacked over the last few seasons. Getting to another bowl game should not be a problem but winning the division will be still be a challenge.

Betting Forecast: Always a public team, Miami has had four straight losing seasons against the number, going 17-31 ATS. Expect the trend to continue in 2009.

North Carolina Tar Heels 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U

Summary: Head coach Butch Davis enters his third season at North Carolina and this could be the best team he has had thus far. Whether that translates into more wins remains to be seen but this team is definitely on the way up. The Tar Heels made it to a bowl game last season for the first time since 2004 and the eight wins were the most since the 2001 season. That happened to be the last time North Carolina had consecutive winning seasons (2000-2001) but we should see that again this year. The defense, ranked 64th overall but 32nd in scoring defense, brings back nine starters as well as many veteran backups so this could be the best unit in years at Chapel Hill. The offense is led by junior T.J. Yates and he has great potential but he has been hurt in each of his first two seasons. He needs to stay healthy and receivers need to emerge to go along with what should be a very good ground attack.

Schedule: North Carolina has not had terribly difficult schedules over the last few years and that is the case again this season. The Tar Heels get seven home games including five of the first seven. The Citadel and Georgia Southern are part of an extremely tame non-conference slate. In ACC action, the Tar Heels get Florida St. and Miami at home but do have to travel to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

Bottom Line: The games against the Yellow Jackets and Hokies could prevent North Carolina from making a real push in the Coastal Division. Everything else sets up really good so if nothing else, another bowl game is likely on the horizon as long as the team can avoid the numerous injuries that have plagued it the last few seasons. Davis is doing it with great recruiting and the Tar Heels are almost where they want to be.

Betting Forecast: North Carolina is 8-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2000 but this could be the year it actually profits in that role after going 3-3 ATS in 2008.

Duke Blue Devils 4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U

Summary: Duke has not been to a bowl game since 1994, its last winning season and it looks to avoid making it 15 straight losing campaigns in Durham. There is not a whole lot coming back from last season’s 4-8 squad but head coach David Cutcliffe has this team going in the right direction. The Blue Devils started the season 4-3 last year before faltering down the stretch but this could be one of the surprises in the ACC. The defense was average last season and was rather inconsistent by allowing 31 or more points four times but allowing 14 or fewer points four times as well. Consistency on that side will help out an offense that finished 102nd overall and 101st in scoring. The unit is led by All-ACC quarterback Thaddeus Lewis who is in his second year in the same system and word on the street is that he is excelling in it.

Schedule: Duke always seems to have a tough schedule based on how much it has lost by in the past but the Blue Devils are starting to climb back up to the level of the opposition. It faces two FCS teams as well as Army in the non-conference portion and the ACC part of it is not overly terrible. The two toughest conference road games are at North Carolina and Miami while Duke gets to host Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

Bottom Line: Could this be the bowl breakthrough finally? It is tough to put that sort of pressure on a very young team but it is definitely not impossible for the Blue Devils to make the postseason. Realistically, they are a year away but it would be hard to sell a rebuilding season when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference under center. Duke may need an upset or two along the way.

Betting Forecast: Duke is just 4-15 ATS as a home dog the last four seasons. This could be the year we see the winning resume in this normally profitable role.

Virginia Cavaliers 5-7 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U

Summary: Virginia avoided the ACC Coastal basement last season despite getting pummeled by Duke as well as losing its last four games following a 3-1 start. It may not be able to avoid the bottom this season. The Cavaliers have been very average this decade with a 62-50 record and they have only four seasons with eight or more victories. In head coach Al Groh’s eighth season last year, Virginia went 5-7 but it really should have had a winning year as it was victimized by close losses down the stretch. The offense was a dismal 114th in the nation in scoring last season so Groh brought in former Bowling Green coach Gregg Brandon to handle the offense while quarterback Jameel Sewell is back after sitting out last season due to academic suspension. The defense will be good again with a strong secondary but it won’t be enough.

Schedule: The non-conference schedule opens with William & Mary but the next two games are against TCU and Southern Miss, the latter being on the road. The final out of conference game is a home game against Indiana. The ACC schedule is manageable with road games at Miami and Clemson being the toughest. The home portion is actually more difficult which includes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

Bottom Line: Virginia does have seven home games and that is always a big advantage for the lesser teams especially. With a new offense coming in and only 11 starters coming back overall, it is hard to see where Virginia is going to get better. When Groh came in, really big things were supposed to happen. That has not occurred and he is firmly planted on the hot seat heading into 2009.

Betting Forecast: Virginia is 16-5 ATS as a home dog under Groh. There will be moneymaking opportunities in this role as a lot of points will be on the side of the Cavaliers.

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