Turnovers Can Turn the Tide
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| Jim Feist - 10/7/2012 5:59 PM |
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by Jim Feist
Last week the Cleveland Browns showed some spunk against the Baltimore Ravens with 357 yards, 320 passing from rookie QB Brandon Weeden. But they fell short in a 23-16 defeat. The difference? 2 turnovers (one pick by Weeden), while the Ravens had only one turnover. Dallas was favored on Monday night football last week, but Tony Romo imploded with 5 picks in a home loss to Chicago. One year ago the Ravens were involved in another TV showdown against the Jets, and the offense had just 267 total yards and was a measly 6 of 18 on third down. In addition, they averaged 2.8 yards per rush. What a terrible offensive performance! Oh, and by the way the Ravens won the game, 34-17. Say what? The difference again was turnovers, with the Jets coughing it up 4 times (3 fumbles, 1 pick). "The best defensive effort I thought I had ever seen or the most amazing defensive performance I thought I'd ever seen was the Pittsburgh game with seven turnovers," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said, referring to Baltimore's season-opening 35-7 rout. "But this topped it. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks. Defensive coaches have been preaching more aggressive, attacking stop units over the last 15 years. Coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the biggest change he had noticed in the college game, Spurrier spoke not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped popularize, but about defenses. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and reacted to what the offense would try and do. However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears famed 46 defense caused havoc around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, led by a devastating, attacking defense. They pitched four shutouts and held 14 of 19 opponents to 10 points or less. Defensive coaches in both the pro and college ranks have been teaching players to not only tackle properly, but to aggressively strip the ball from opposing players. Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their teaching talents to upgrade defenses. A key component of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. During the 2008 season, the Miami Dolphins came out of nowhere to win the AFC East in a stunning one-year turnaround. It's no coincidence that Dolphins led the NFL (+17 in turnover margin) that season, then were minus-8 in TOs the next year going 7-9. The Patriots went 14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS in 2010, setting a record for positive turnover margin. Take a close look at the bottom teams in turnover margin from last season: 2011 Worst TO Margin ---- ATS record Bucs (-1) ---- 4-12 ATS Eagles (-0.9) ---- 7-9 ATS Redskins (-0.9) ---- 8-8 ATS Steelers (-0.8) ---- 7-10 ATS Cardinals (-0.8) ---- 9-7 ATS Colts (-0.8) ---- 6-10 ATS Broncos (-0.6) ---- 8-9-1 ATS Chargers (-4) ---- 6-10 ATS Tampa Bay was the worst and got their coaching staff axed. New Coach Greg Schiano put a premium on taking care of the football for this season and you can see why. The Eagles were a big favorite to make the Super Bowl last season but flamed out with turnovers playing a huge roll, while the Chargers disappointed and the Colts were a disaster finishing 2-14. Only two of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason (Steelers, Broncos). Those teams were also a combined 55-75 against the spread, a factor to keep in mind when assessing weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even spill over onto the sidelines. A few years ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 interceptions against the Panthers and while the Rams had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to play it safe and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely criticized for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it's clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, "I don't want Bulger to throw another interception. I'd better play it safe." That same 2008 season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential -- Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis -- all made the playoffs with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season. 2011 Top TO Margin ATS record 49ers (+1.7) ---- 12-5-1 ATS Packers (+1.2) ---- 11-6 ATS Patriots (+0.8) ---- 10-9 ATS Lions (+0.6) ---- 7-10 ATS NY Giants (+0.6) ---- 12-7-1 ATS Seahawks (+0.5) ---- 10-5-1 ATS Falcons (+0.5) ---- 8-8-1 ATS Ravens (+0.4) ---- 9-8-1 ATS Texans (+0.3) ---- 12-5-1 ATS The tops teams last season in turnover margin had very strong seasons, with four of them meeting in the conference championship games and all but Seattle made the playoffs. They were also a combined 91-63-6 ATS. Be careful backing teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when analyzing football picks. Chances are they don't win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball. |
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