Super Sunday!
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| Jim Feist - 1/27/2013 6:47 PM |
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by Jim Feist
Welcome to Brother Bowl I! Both the Ravens and 49ers lost in the conference championship games a year ago, but won this season to set up a fascinating Super Bowl of Harbaugh brothers coaching against each other. Back in August the Ravens were 8-to-1 and the 49ers 4-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 9 of the last 15, though the Saints, Packers and Giants have won the last three. These are two fierce defensive teams, which is quiet a triumph as since 2004 the rules have been changed by the NFL to favor offense. That includes enforcing the 5-yard rule to help wide receivers get down field with less hindrance and the Tom Brady rule, which protects quarterbacks. When the top-ranked offenses met three years ago, following the pass-happy Arizona Cardinals surprising run to the Super Bowl the previous season, many wondered if offense was now they way to build a championship team. But let's face it: Defense is still King. The Giants won two titles with great defense, topping the pass-happy Patriots, and now the Ravens and 49ers got here with physical, punishing defenses, topping finesse teams in the conference championships. Remember that when the Packers and Steelers squared off two years ago they were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so defense is still very much alive and dominating! The Ravens hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 8-3 ATS the last 11 Super Bowls, winning five times. Here's a look at what to expect this weekend as America's unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off. What the Raven want to do: They would prefer a balanced offense with RB Ray Rice, but the fact is QB Joe Flacco has carried this offense in the playoffs with 8 TDs and no interceptions. He's in a contract year, a free agent after this game, and is now 8-4 as a playoff quarterback. The offense wasn't that impressive during the regular season, 15th in passing with 233.7 yards per game, 11th in rushing (118.8), which prompted the firing of OC Cam Cameron in favor of Jim Caldwell. The air attack will probably have to lead the way again with WR Anquan Boldin (112 catches, 921 yds) and speedy WR Torrey Smith (855 yds). The defense has a punishing, physical style that forced two second half turnovers against the Patriots in the AFC title game. Run stuffer Holati Nata is joined by veterans Ray Lewis and DE Terrell Suggs, but the key will be figuring out a way to stop the 49ers read option. For the final three quarters, the Falcons were at a complete loss responding to Colin Kaepernick's read-option fakes. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games, a 4-1 run under the total in the postseason. What the 49ers want to do: What haven't they done this postseason? They hung 45 on the Packers, then trailed 17-0 at Atlanta but didn't panic, rallying for a 28-24 win. The San Francisco offense is fourth in rushing (155.7 yds pg) behind second-year QB Colin Kaepernick (10 TDs, 3 INTs, 62.4%, 415 yards rushing, 6.6 ypc) and RB Frank Gore (1,214 yds, 4.7 ypc). But don't ignore the passing game with WR Mike Crabtree (1,105 yards), TE Vernon Davis (548) and WR Randy Moss (434, 15.5 ypc). Then there is the defense, 4th in pass yards allowed (200 yds pg), 4th against the run (94.2) where six of their nine Pro Bowlers reside. The over is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 against a team with a winning record and the team is on a 25-11-1 ATS run. Over the last 36 years, the "over" has gone 21-16 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 6-2 the last eight years. Enjoy the big game! |
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