College Bowl Preview - December 29th

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Triple Threat Sports - 12/29/2014 4:15 AM

We were 20-12 (63%) in the college football regular season and have started off the bowl season with a 4-2 record. We do not have any star rated bowl plays today, but as has been the case most of the time when we have no star rated plays on a particular bowl day, we will preview all the games in article form. We hope you enjoy.

Going to actually start with the nightcap - the Texas Bowl.

The Longhorns certainly enjoy the proximity edge for this one as Austin is pretty close to Houston, but Arkansas fans travel well and this is not a massive trip for them, so we look for the Hogs to be fairly well represented. Notably, the teams with a proximity edge are only 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in bowl games this year. Unfortunately, that is the only real nugget I have for you in this game. To me, what we have here is two teams that are very similar, with no one thing that jumps out as a matchup either can exploit. Arkansas has an excellent offensive line....but the Longhorm DL is among the best in the country. All in all I will not be getting involved in this game - if you must play it the only thing I can see with any kind of value is an Arkansas/Under teaser.

Next up we go with the Russell Athletic Bowl @ The Citrus Bowl...so I am calling this the Citrus Bowl. I was on the fence on this one, as Oklahoma has been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, and it was tough to trust them laying points against a good Clemson team. However, two stats from the research pointed me in the direction of the Sooner Schooner. First off, CU reserve QB Stoudt will get the start in this one - and he has been dreadful against the best competition he has faced. He has an 0-6 TD/Int ratio against bowl teams this year. Finally, was having a hard time getting past the fact that Oklahoma was 0-3 SU against Top 25 teams this year...until looking back and noting that the last time OU beat a Top 25 team was in last year's bowl...and that Stoops' team is 4-1 SU in their last five bowl games. Cannot make this star rated since I respect the Venables (who was the DC at Oklahoma) Tigers defense, but there is enough reason to side with the Sooners here...and we lean with the Under as well.

Finally, a look at the Liberty Bowl, and this is our favorite game of the day. When the bowl matchups came out I - with no stats, just pure gut - made lines on every game. Those have been a primer for what has been a pretty good bowl season so far, and as such I do not like going against those lines. However, in this case I simply think my initial line was wrong...and West Virginia is the play. Yes, there is concern about Trickett not starting for the Mounties, but Skyler Howard should be fine, especially since he will be able to rely on the WVU running game against an Aggies rush defense that has been shredded for 363-335-384 yards in the last three games. Finally, cannot ignore that West Virginia handed Baylor its only loss of the season, and Texas A&M and Baylor are VERY similar in style but Baylor has better players. So, it can be said that WVU has already beaten the "varsity" Baylor offense, so I think they will be able to deal with the "JV" in in this one. Did not star rate this one since - as alluded to above - my "gut" line had A&M as chalk and I am loathe to actually bet against those lines, but all other things point to West Virginia as the play.

Also like the Under in this game, as these two coaches served on the same offensive staff as each other when both were at Houston, so they know EXACTLY what the other will be thinking and as such should have their defenses very well prepared. Also, the stats show that WVU is 4-8 to the Under at this number this season while A&M is 4-7-1 to the Under at this number. Scary taking an Under with these two teams, but it seems to be the way to go.

Have a Great Day!

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