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March Madness is "Under" Way
By Big Al McMordie
Vermont and Bucknell in. Syracuse and Kansas out. Who would've thunk it?
What a wild weekend, as we are thick in the middle of college basketball's tournament
time, with the Sweet 16 coming up. This is a good time to bring up the subject
of "under" time in sports. No, this is not some counter-culture version
of "overtime." By "unders" I'm referring to basketball games
that go under the posted total. If you're a serious sports bettor you will find
some dramatic line shifts with respect to totals, far more so than sides. Generally
speaking, it's a bit more difficult for oddsmakers to post a solid number on
a total than a side in basketball. In the Pistons/Spurs game Sunday, the side
stayed right around pick 'em or minus-one for both teams. But notice the total
in some places jumped 4 points, opening at 176 and closing around 172.
Naturally, you can guess what bettors and the public were thinking: Two brilliant
defensive teams going head to head, therefore a very low scoring game was expected.
(The books cleaned up, too, as the head of Joe Public was spinning after the
rather unbelievable final score of
110-101!)
While that game didn't turn into the defensive duel many expected, bettors
still had the right idea, as the previous three meetings between the Spurs and
Pistons sailed under the total. That's 3-1 now "under" the total,
and 75% winners -- last time I checked my math -- will consistently garner you
a serious profit in the world of eleven-to-ten!
This is even more common in March in college basketball games. Teams that make
it to their conference tournaments or the Big Dance generally will play extra
hard on defense than they might during the regular season -- and it might be
the last thing anyone remembers of your season if you lose. One reason is that
so many people are watching, on TV and in the stands. A lazy defensive effort
will embarrass yourself and your teammates. Another reason is so many of the
games mean a great deal.
This isn't always the case in the NIT tournament, as some teams are disappointed
in getting an NIT invite as they were expecting more. But in tournament play
and the NCAA tourney, coaches will often ask players to give more at the defensive
end, and players usually respond.
Let's get back to Vermont. The Catamounts got here by dictating the pace, playing
a slow tempo with hard working defense all season. So what happened the last
three games? Under, under, under. Vermont is 3-0 "under" the total,
even holding Syracuse to 57 points -- in overtime!
With a total of 138 on that game, the linesmakers were off by 21 points.
This is not uncommon when the games mean so much more like they do in March.
Take a look at Wisconsin, a team traditionally known for rough, tough defense.
The Badgers are 19-13 "under" the total on the year, and even though
they come into March with a low scoring reputation that goes back several years,
they are still 7-1 "under" the total the last eight games! They advanced
Sunday, and for the record Wisconsin is 9-4 "under"
the total in non-conference games this season.
Finally, Duke is another great example. Duke has a reputation as a wide-open
offensive machine. Yet, many people may not realize that the Blue Devils were
terrific defensively this season, leading the ACC in points allowed. Duke shut
down Mississippi State Sunday with more brilliant defense, allowing 55 points
in a game that went way under the total of 143.5. Duke is now 20-11 "under"
the total on the season and
8-1 "under" the last nine games. Again, it's March, and don't be surprised
if "unders" keep popping up in big games. Because while offense makes
flashy headlines and causes TV broadcasters to whoop it up, defense wins games
and titles.
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