BCS Hysteria: No. 1 vs. No. 2!
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| Jim Feist - 1/2/2012 12:43 AM |
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by Jim Feist
Happy New Year! After recovering from the weekend's New Year festivities, we glide through the end of the bowl season. A few more bowls are appetizers for the tune-up that is the January 9 Alabama/LSU rematch for all the marbles. Sugar Bowl (Tues., Jan. 4): The great running offense against the great run defense as Michigan takes on Virginia Tech. Both teams, actually, have been great defensively. Michigan (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) has a new style with head coach Brady Hoke, a proponent of a wide-open pro-style/West Coast offense, though they have been a better running team. They average 34.2 points, 235.7 yards rushing (No. 12 in the nation) and 187.4 passing behind junior QB Denard Robinson (18 TDs, 14 INTs), leading the Wolverines in rushing with 1,163 yards, 16 TDs and 5.6 ypc. Michigan has moved to a four-man front from the 3-3-5 under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who came over from the Baltimore Ravens. Nine starters are back on ‘D', led by senior NT Mike Martin. They are much improved, allowing 17.2 ppg, 7th in the nation. The Over is 10-1 in the Wolverines last 11 Bowl games. Virginia Tech (11-2, 4-7-1 ATS) lost the ACC title game, 38-10 to Clemson. They've had a fine season for Coach Frank Beamer defensively allowing 17.2 ppg (8th in the nation). The offense has been up and down behind 6-6 sophomore QB Logan Thomas (19 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,799 yards), and speedy junior Tailback David Wilson (1,627 yds, 6.1 ypc). The Hokies are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Orange Bowl (Wed., Jan 4): A fun battle of high octane passing attacks. Clemson (10-3 SU/8-4 ATS) is loaded offensively as Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa's Chad Morris as offensive coordinator. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (31 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,578 yards) leads the offense that is striking for 33.6 points, 284.8 yards passing. They can run behind senior RB Andre Ellington (1,062 yards, 5.0 ypc) and pass with freshman WR Sammy Watkins (1,135 yards, 11 TDs) and sophomore WR DeAndre Hopkins (871). The Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. West Virginia (9-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has new coach Dana Holgorsen, a pass-happy attack with mobile junior QB Geno Smith (25 TDs, 7 INTs, 3,978 yards). The wideouts are the Mountaineers' deepest position led by junior WR Tavon Austin (1,063 yards) and sophomore WR Stedman Bailey (1,197 yards, 11 TDs, 17.9 ypc). They had a 21-20 win over rival Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. West Virginia sacked Tino Sunseri 10 times led by DE Bruce Irvin. The Over is 9-2 in the Mountaineers last 11 games. The Mountaineers are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cotton Bowl (Fri., Jan., 6): The all-running team against the all-passing one...and a pair of dynamite scoring offenses. Kansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) is not flashy, with a ground game carrying the offense (33.1 points, 193.7 yards rushing), as the poor passing game is 109th in the nation behind 6-foot-5 junior QB Collin Klein (12 TDs, 5 INTs, 1,745 yards), a better runner. He leads the team with 1,099 yards rushing and 26 TDs, along with 5-7 sophomore RB John Hubert (933 yards, 5.0 ypc). They have overachieved for Coach Bill Snyder. K-State is on a 15-6 run over the total. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Arkansas (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has a wide open passing game for coach Bobby Petrino behind junior Tyler Wilson (22 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,422 yards), averaging 37.4 points and 307.8 yards passing (13th in the nation). He has experienced targets to throw to in senior WRs Joe Adams (630 yards) and 6-3 WR Jarius Wright (1,029 yards). Arkansas is on a 14-4 run over the total and 16-2 SU/12-5 ATS its last 17 games. The under is 8-0 in Razorbacks last 8 bowl games. BCS Championship Game (Mon., Jan., 9): Here they go again! The SEC has won the last 5 national titles and will win again. Defense is the story (and revenge), with Bama No. 1 in points allowed (8.8) and LSU No. 2 (10.5). Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) has junior RB Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 6.0 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (631, 7.5 ypc) on another powerhouse team for Nick Saban. Sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (16 TDs, 5 INTs) runs this balanced attack averaging 36 points, 213.6 yards passing, 219.8 yards rushing. The defense is sensational, yet they botched their first showdown at home with No. 1 LSU, a stunning 9-6 OT defeat. 3 missed field goals, 2 crushing turnovers and countless missed opportunities and poor execution cost them. They held LSU to 234 total yards and forced 2 turnovers. Bama is 21-10-1 under the total in their last 31 conference games. No. 1 LSU (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) has a ton of talent, especially on defense. Senior QB Jarrett Lee (14 TDs, 3 INTs) has been very good, though the ground game leads the way behind soph RBs Spencer Ware (700 yds, 4.0 ypc) and Mike Ford (755, 6.1 ypc), a dynamic one-two backfield punch, averaging 38 ppg, 209 yards rushing and 167 passing. 6-4 junior WR Rueben Randle (904 yards) can stretch defenses averaging 18.1 yards per catch (though he caught only 2 passes in the first meeting against Bama). The Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. |
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