Understanding Baseball Totals

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Jack Clayton - 5/14/2011 11:52 AM

If you don't like laying money on the favorites in baseball or hoping a +150 underdog can get the win, you might find baseball totals more suitable for your finances. Baseball totals are similar to point spreads in football, with a set number such as 9, and then you normally lay 11-to-win-10 going OVER or UNDER that posted number.

So what should you look for with baseball totals? Many novice bettors focus on home runs (power hitting line-ups against pitchers who serve up a lot of dingers). Home runs are certainly an important consideration, but two other factors are even more important: Walks and the ballpark.

When it comes to offense in baseball, on-base percentage is a key. This is the ability of a batter to get on base, either by a hit, a walk or getting hit by a pitch. This was a major reason why Ricky Henderson was the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. Henderson could hit for average and power while stealing 80-90 bases in his prime, but all during his career, he has been brilliant at being patient at the plate and drawing walks. Even at the end of his career, as a part-time player with San Diego, Henderson had 81 walks in only 379 at bats. His batting average was poor (.227) but he still had a solid on-base percentage (.366) because of all those walks, making him an asset atop the batting order.

You can apply the same concept to pitchers. It's important for a successful pitcher to throw strikes and be stingy about walking batters. For a pitcher, allowing free passes is a no-no. Notice that when Curt Schilling was MVP of the World Series, that season Schilling allowed a whopping 37 home runs (tied for most in the NL). Yet, he was 22-6 with a 2.98 ERA. The reason the home runs didn't hurt him was that no one was on base: Schilling walked only 39 batters in 256 innings pitched, an incredible ratio.

Throwing strikes is key. A few years ago I recall Jim Brower, a pitcher for the Reds, was wild with his control, walking 60 batters in 129 innings. This was over 4 walks per nine innings pitched, which means Brower gave the opposition a lot of free passes. This is not smart pitching, but it does allow a smart bettor good spots to wager on games to go OVER the total with pitchers who have poor control.

Brower's last four starts that season all went OVER the total. Let's look at his last two starts that year: On August 3rd, Brower was matched up against San Diego's Kevin Jarvis. This was a good OVER spot, as Brower had control problems while Jarvis allowed 37 home runs, tied with Schilling and teammate Bobby Jones for the most in the NL. Brower ended up walking 5 batters in 5 innings, while Jarvis was knocked around in a 9-2 Cincinnati victory, an easy OVER.

In his next start, Brower faced the Cubs and allowed 4 walks in 4 innings. The Cubs went with Jason Bere, who wasn't strong with his control, either (77 walks in 188 IP). Chicago won the game 6-5 and it went OVER the total of nine-and-a-half. In 217 career innings, Brower had allowed 101 walks, so it wasn't just last season that he struggled with his control. And you need to look at career stats as well as season stats on pitchers to properly identify control and home run tendencies.

The other factor is the ballpark. Some parks have huge outfields making them tough to score runs in (Safeco, Comerica, Dodger Stadium, Oakland Alameda County Coliseum). These are known as “pitcher's parks” and are more apt to have low scoring games, which is often reflected in the line. There are “hitter's parks”, too, such as Coors Field, Fenway Park, The Ball Park in Arlington, Wrigley Field, Camden Yards, as well as the newer parks in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Houston. You might lean toward an OVER in baseball with pitchers who walk too many batters who happen to be hurling in a hitter's park.

So make sure you understand the importance of on-base percentage in baseball, for both hitters and pitchers. Understanding this and the strengths and weaknesses of different ballparks give you an edge when betting baseball totals.

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