One Time Wonders -SYSTEM of the WEEK

Major upsets make college football what it is today. They’re exciting, they’re shocking and, most important to the professional handicapper, they can lead us to the “profit land”.

We’ve seen the setting so many times. An energized college pup – given no chance at all at a victory – rises up to the challenge and steals a win. As you might suspect, fresh off that emotional achievement, our “one time wonder” experiences all kinds of trouble in their next game. Consider the following system:

PLAY AGAINST any college road favorite of -3 or more off a straight up underdog win priced at +6 or more provided their opponent today owns a won/loss percentage greater than .000 and less than .750.

Since 1980, Division I-A teams in that situation are a wallet-breaking 23-50 ATS! That’s 68.4% winners! There are two teams that fits this awesome “play against” system on Saturday: Georgia Tech and Notre Dame!

If you want to tighten this system up a bit, bring our guest in off a straight up home win of 21 points or less. In that parameter, our “one time wonder” dips to a disgraceful 4-25 ATS! That’s 86.2% winners! Notre Dame is the only team that fits that special parameter.

There is a way to make this situation perfect. If you take your 4-25 ATS road team and bring them in off 12 (or less) wins in their last 22 games, this “one time wonder” system crashes to an amazing 0-16 ATS! Guess what? The Fighting Irish are locked into that nasty set!

Good luck with the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday and be sure to check back next Wednesday for another insightful handicapping article compliments of Tom Stryker.

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