Road Chalk That Doesn’t Walk
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| Tom Stryker - 10/20/2005 4:26 PM |
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Road Chalk That Doesn’t Walk, by Tom Stryker
The general public loves to bet favorites. It doesn’t matter what sport. College football, the NFL, buckets and bases – you name it. Just give “Joe Public” a piece of chalk and let him fire away. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve been known to chew on a little wood myself. But, there are times when laying the lumber is the wrong thing to do. Let me set the stage for one of them. Last weekend, you were a touchdown (or more) favorite on your home turf and you lost the game outright. This week, the Las Vegas linemaker has installed you a double-digit road favorite knowing full well that you’ll bounce back off that embarrassing loss. But will you? If you’re laying ten points (or more) on the road, odds are you are matched up against an inferior opponent. The obvious knee-jerk reaction would be to lay the juice with this better road team off the loss thinking they’ll bounce back versus a team they can beat. That’s exactly what you don’t want to do! Take a look at the following technical situation. Since 1982, play “against” any college football double-digit road favorite provided they lost straight up as a home favorite of -7 or more in their last game. 24-Year Record = 46-25 ATS for 64.7 percent There is one team that fits this "play against" system on Saturday – UTAH! As you can plainly see, the road favorite doesn’t bounce back at all. In fact, things can get much worse. If our guest is battling an opponent that enters off a straight up and ATS loss, this system crashes to a woeful 10-25 ATS! If you think about that parameter for a second, you’ll agree it makes perfect sense. The general public knows that this road favorite is lined up against a team that just got dusted. That will make “Joe Public” want to invest on this piece of road chalk even more! That’s a “no-no”! UNLV got drilled 42-7 at Air Force last weekend so the Utes apply to this awful tightener as well. If you want to make this system perfect, take the 10-25 ATS set and then bring your “play against” guest off two or more straight up losses. When that happens, the visitor is a shocking 0-7 ATS! Yes, Utah fits that final tightener as well! Good luck with UNLV on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for another powerful winning system. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker. |
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