College Football Mismatches and Ground Attacks!

Successful sports handicappers digest stats each week, of course, but what’s more important in the world of 11-to-10 is HOW to use those stats. The easiest moneymakers against the spread are mismatches and the astute handicapper has to learn to apply accordingly.

Mismatches occur in some aspect of a game between two teams. The St. Louis Rams, for instance, have a very poor run defense, ranking 10th worst in the NFL. They played the Chargers on Sunday, and guess what the game plan was for San Diego coach Marty Schottenheimer? Run! Then run some more. That was a mismatch in just one area, but it was all that was needed in a 38-24 Chargers rout. LaDainian Tomlinson had 183 yards as San Diego cruised and covered.

Now, if the Chargers were facing a strong run defense, then that mismatch doesn’t apply, of course. Mismatches can also be applied with an above-average veteran quarterback facing an opponent with an inexperienced QB, or a good head coach against a poor one, or a blitzing defense like the Steelers facing a team with a weak offensive line.

I used this wagering strategy on Saturday, which helped me to a 3-0 day. One play was BYU, which has a dynamite passing offense behind QB John Beck. They were a relatively short favorite against Air Force, a team with a very slow and poor secondary. The Falcons had already given up 333 yards passing to Tennessee, 232 to New Mexico and 282 to Colorado State. Can you say mismatch? BYU won and covered easily in a 33-14 victory (leading 21-0 at the half), as Beck chalked up 258 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs. BYU ended up with an edge in total yardage of 411-229.

Another basic fundamental area to look for mismatches is the ground game. Does Team A have a power running game and does Team B have a small defensive line and/or struggles against the run? I also had San Jose as a play, a team that is averaging 200 yards on the ground in WAC play. San Jose was hosting La Tech on Saturday as a 9-point favorite. What is La Tech’s major weakness? A run defense that is abysmal, allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground, a whopping 5 yards per carry! San Jose rolled 44-10. San Jose State rushed for a season-high 476 yards and 644 total yards. Not much of a sweat for the sports bettor with the Spartans as a 9-point home chalk.

Finally, young teams often play poorly on the road and can be turnover prone. That’s the case with stumbling Memphis. Memphis was 0-3 SU on the road this season with a turnover-prone young QB leading them in Martin Hankins. They were on the road again Saturday, and I took Marshall, the home team, which got the money in a 41-27 win and cover. “We made mistakes,'' Memphis QB Hankins said. ''We turned the ball over I don't know how many times in the second half. It kills you. It just kills you.'' Yes it does! And that’s not surprising, as mismatches can be found all over Saturday’s football card. You just have to know WHAT to look for and HOW to apply them!

Back to Article Listing