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Line Movement:
What Is Going On?
by Bryan Leonard
I’ve been on both sides of the
betting counter when it comes to making numbers. I’ve been a professional
bettor searching for bad lines for 19 years, and I’ve made sides and totals
for various sports books. Line movement is a fascinating part of the world of
sports betting.
A lot of people think that line movement is primarily because some big bettor
has inside information and loads up on a soft number, creating dramatic line
movement on that game. What’s important to understand is that a lot of
things are taking place when lines move.
Sometimes big bettors are hammering a game, most likely because they think it’s
a poor number. Other times the public goes into a frenzy and far more money
comes in on one side, creating significant line movement in one direction. Why
does the public go into a frenzy on some games? There are many reasons, such
as important information, injuries, revenge situations, weather, even rumors.
The line on the Colts/Bills game this past weekend opened at 4 and was bet up
to 7 on the favored home team, the Colts. That’s significant movement on
a preseason game. Largely what happened was that Colts coach Tony Dungy announced
he was going to play his starters into the third quarter because he wanted to
simulate game conditions and make halftime adjustments with the starters for
the third quarter. In addition, the Colts had been embarrassed the week before
at home 31-7 by the Jets. This was their second straight home game. The combination
suggested that the Colts would be serious for the game and play well. As it
turned out, the public was right as Indianapolis rolled 30-17. However, the
Colts didn’t dominate the game – the Bills had more yardage and Indy
had 4 turnovers, yet scored on a blocked punt and an 84-yard kickoff return.
Sometimes good fortune is better than perceived "inside information."
Still, the public got the money. On the other hand, there was significant line
movement on the Raiders/Cardinals game, too. Oakland opened as a 1½ point
favorite and was bet up to 5 by kickoff. Oakland’s pass defense was poor
and Arizona led 6-3 at the half before Oakland rallied for a 17-16 win, but
failed to cover.
The most important thing to remember when you observe dramatic line movement
is not to get emotional and jump on board. Novice bettors can think, "Someone
must know something about this game." The fact is, most of the time, they
don’t. There are also times when big bettors or syndicates will hammer
a line early in the week to purposely move it a few points, and then come back
the day of the game and bet the other way in an attempt to middle the game.
What might appear to be a game where "someone knows something," turns
out to be not that at all. So be cautious and react with great care when you
observe significant line movement. In the world of sports wagering, many things
are not as they first appear.
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