Tourney Shockers: Beware of No-Names

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Jack Clayton - 3/24/2013 2:09 PM

by Jim Feist

College tournament play is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for sports fans and bettors, with a seemingly endless stream of action and excitement. Big name schools often end up playing for the title. Florida of the SEC took home back to back national championships by beating UCLA and Ohio State in 2006 and '07. Then it was Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, UConn and Kentucky winning titles again the last five years. But who did the last three teams beat for the title? Kansas and...tiny Butler? That Butler, of the Horizon League and now Atlantic 10?

It's not as surprising as you might think, which makes March tourney play so exciting and challenging to predict. In 2011 Butler knocked off Pitt, Wisconsin and Florida to reach the Final Four. And who did they meet in the Final Four? VCU! That Virginia Commonwealth team knocked off USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas before falling to Butler. How's that for a who's-who of powerhouse conferences?

A year ago No. 13 Ohio knocked off No. 4 Michigan, 65-60, No. 2 Missouri got bounced by No. 15 Norfolk State (86-84), Lehigh upset Duke (75-70) Florida State had to fight tooth and nail to survive St. Bonnies (66-63), as did Syracuse against NC Asheville (72-65).

High profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success. However, basketball is a team game and smaller, lesser-known schools can compete with the big boys, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors every March.

Before winning the title in 2010 you didn't see Duke much in the Big Dance the previous three years ago, did you? That's because the Blue Devils got upset in the first round, losing to VCU, 79-77. Five years ago they nipped Belmont, 71-70, then lost to West Virginia, and in 2009 Duke survived two games before Villanova blew them out, 77-54.

In 2007, UNLV upset Georgia Tech and Wisconsin on its way to the Sweet 16. Seven years ago the big story was George Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Patriots made it to the Final Four by knocking off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn. They were 5, 6 and 8 point dogs in those games. In that first round alone Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

How about tiny Holy Cross few years ago? The Crusaders had to face Marquette in the tournament opener and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a 72-68 game. Holy Cross also gave mighty Kansas a run for their money.

Every year one or two little known teams make memorable runs. Butler was a big story in consecutive years, but was no stranger to pulling surprises even before that. A few years ago, Butler topped Mississippi State 47-46 and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the money-line. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example, on a minus-900 favorite. Surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, "On any given Sunday" one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can't miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova, a +10 dog, upset mighty Georgetown, 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, a sizzling 78%. It would be tough to beat ANY underdog that shoots 78%! Other times small schools can have future NBA talent, such as Stephen Curry at Davidson.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves enough to upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog. Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn't always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for lower-seeded tournies and aren't always focused for their best effort.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That's what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite. Don't take big favorites on the money-line and don't simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school without doing your homework, because tourney time is loaded with surprises.

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